Welcome to Week 9 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.
Buffalo Bills (-11.5, 46) at New York Jets
Dave Tuley: Double-digit home dogs are 2-0 ATS after the Texans covered Thursday night and all double-digit dogs are now 6-4 ATS. The Bills — as great as they can be with the No. 1 offense and No. 3 defense — still have a tendency to play close games, including not covering as 10.5-point faves in their 27-17 win versus the Packers on Sunday night. Besides, the Jets (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) have been more competitive than expected all season, including beating those same Packers 27-10 as 8-point dogs in Week 6 behind their No. 6 defense that has kept them in most games. When it comes down to it, this is mostly a play about how parity is alive and well in the NFL and there’s not this much difference between the top and bottom teams in the league (and the Jets are far from the bottom).
Pick: Jets +12.5 (South Point)
Miami Dolphins (-4, 45.5) at Chicago Bears
Adam Burke: Is this the last time we get Justin Fields at a reasonable number for rushing yards? The DraftKings prop is set at 50.5, and he’s gone Over that number in three straight games and four of the last five, as first-time offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and rookie head coach Matt Eberflus realized the scheme needs to include Fields using his legs. His hesitancy as a passer has been a major problem, but he’s had a fair amount of time to throw. Now that he’s been instructed to take off at will, the Bears offense is starting to show signs of life.
The Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most QB rushing yards this season and an average of 5.6 yards per carry. It’s entirely possible that the Bears will have to keep pace with the explosive Dolphins, and that should play into Fields running a bit more. Sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts into the 20-25 mph range may also make it harder to throw, thus encouraging Fields to scramble.
Pick: Justin Fields Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Minnesota Vikings (-3, 43.5) at Washington Commanders
Femi Abebefe: Right now there are five teams in the NFL with six wins or more (Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Vikings and Bills). Based on what I’ve seen through eight weeks, I feel confident in saying Buffalo, Philadelphia and Dallas are true contenders. I also feel confident in saying the Giants, while better than anyone expected, are not contenders based on their underlying metrics.
I say all that to say this: What are we supposed to do with the Vikings? Tied for the second-best record in the league at 6-1, I don’t know what to make of this team. There are times when they’ve shown flashes of brilliance, but how can you overlook their good fortune of getting opponents that are littered with injuries?
I’m not saying Minnesota should apologize for facing backup QBs or teams with cluster injuries, but I do think those circumstances have boosted their record above what they are.
With a point differential of just +29, I think we’re going to see the Vikings regress to the negative in the second half of the season, and that’s going to start Sunday in Washington. I’m not in love with the Commanders, but I think this is the spot to fade an inflated road favorite that’s probably closer to average than good.
Pick: Commanders +3
Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 49.5) at Detroit Lions
Adam Burke: The Packers offense hasn’t been explosive for a long time, but we overlooked that fact because they were still efficient. That isn’t really the case anymore, as their offense continues to be one of the more disappointing units in the league. The NFL average for seconds per play is 28.07, with the Packers ranked 29th at 29.76. Only the Ravens, Falcons and Titans use more clock and that’s largely because those teams run the ball a ton to protect the defense.
Green Bay has scored on 27.6% of its possessions, better than only the Steelers and Commanders. This is a lackluster, unimaginative offense handcuffed by a lack of proven talent at wide receiver. It also appears that the Packers defense is starting to crack under the weight. The Packers have only forced seven takeaways in eight games and rank around league average in yards per play allowed and Scoring% against.