The Michigan State Spartans (3-5) visit Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (7-1) on Nov. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT in Champaign.
Illinois are betting favorites in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -16 (-115).
The Over/Under for Michigan State vs. Illinois is 42 total points.
Bet now on Illinois vs Michigan State & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
Michigan State vs Illinois Prediction for Week 10
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Illinois will win this game with 72.8% confidence.
Michigan State vs Illinois Spread Prediction for Week 10
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 51.5% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan State and Illinois, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Michigan State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan State has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.44 Units / 36% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+22.15 Units / 104% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 10 games (+10.82 Units / 74% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 65% ROI)
Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan State has gone 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.5 Units / -28.25% ROI).
- Michigan State is 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -3.59% ROI
- Michigan State is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- Michigan State is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Illinois has gone 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI).
- Illinois is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.75 Units / 46.39% ROI
- Illinois is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -39.77% ROI
- Illinois is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 31.82% ROI
Michigan State is 13-2 (.812) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — 5th-best in FBS; Average: .490
Michigan State is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — tied for 13th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .564
Michigan State is 10-2 (.625) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — 7th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .418
Michigan State is winless (0-7) when having a TD margin of -2 or worse since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .007
Illinois is 5-10 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– tied for 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .506
Illinois is 3-9 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2020 season– tied for 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .499
Illinois is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .509
Illinois’s TEs has 19 receptions in 7 games (just 2.7 per game) this season — second-worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 21.3 receptions per game this season — fourth-worst among Big Ten defenses.