The North Carolina Tar Heels (7-1) visit Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (3-5) on Nov. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Charlottesville.
North Carolina are betting favorites in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Over/Under for North Carolina vs. Virginia is 60.5 total points.
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North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction for Week 10
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts North Carolina will win this game with 66.0% confidence.
North Carolina vs Virginia Spread Prediction for Week 10
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina will cover the spread with 64.1% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Virginia, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players for Week 10, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brennan Armstrong has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Billy Kemp IV has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Brennan Armstrong has hit the Passing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Keytaon Thompson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
North Carolina Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.49 Units / 15% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- North Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 4 games at home (+4.25 Units / 98% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+3.10 Units / 28% ROI)
North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Carolina has gone 4-3 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 0% ROI).
- North Carolina is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 40.37% ROI
- North Carolina is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
- North Carolina is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia has gone 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI).
- Virginia is 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -29.47% ROI
- Virginia is 1-6 when betting the Over for -5.6 Units / -63.64% ROI
- Virginia is 6-1 when betting the Under for +4.9 Units / 55.68% ROI
North Carolina is 9-3 (.643) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .431
Virginia is 3-8 (.273) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 13th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .435
Virginia is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .386
Virginia is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .404
Virginia is 2-6 (.222) when not forcing a fumble — tied for 11th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .453
Virginia has gained 5,792 yards on 440 receptions (13.2 YPR) since the 2021 season — fourth-best among ACC skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — third-worst among ACC defenses.