MACTION IS BACK! The return of the MAC to Tuesday and Wednesday nights is something that we can all rally around and we have the potential for a real barnburner on Tuesday night between Buffalo and Ohio. We’ve also got some excellent games on Saturday, specifically in the SEC with Alabama vs. LSU and Georgia vs. Tennessee.
Now that we’re into November, there are a lot of things that cannot be quantified that will be part of the equation. There are already eight teams eliminated from having enough wins to be considered for a bowl game. We’ve seen coaches fired already, but more of them are going to be let go in the coming weeks. We’re also going to see some teams play more freshmen and sophomores in hopes of seeing what they’ve got for next season. Coaches may also need to throw players a bone to keep them from transferring.
It can be really hard to follow all of those developments, but one that shouldn’t be hard to follow is when a quarterback at a major program like Utah is not going to start. Virtually nobody knew that Cam Rising was going to be sidelined. Utah still won the game, but failed to cover. The NCAA doesn’t require the same transparency as other sports with regards to injury. Some coaches are an open book. Others are a diary with a complicated lock.
With regards to my process for updating power ratings, it is particularly challenging because the most important part of what I do is to compare my line with the closing line. The Utes line didn’t really have a lot of time to move because the shocking announcement about Rising didn’t really show up until right before kickoff. In another instance, we had a pretty good idea that Dequan Finn wasn’t going to play for Toledo, which drove that line down. But, I can’t very well adjust Toledo assuming Finn doesn’t play next week. That’s where the box score study and some early-week asterisks come into play.
The Rising incident won’t be the last. We’ll see a lot of teams tinkering with the QB position, especially as nagging injuries mount and the focus shifts to next season. You just have to stay on your toes as much as you can.
Here are my Week 10 Power Ratings:
Rank |
Team |
Conference |
PR |
HFA |
1 |
Georgia |
SEC |
98.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
Ohio State |
Big Ten |
97.5 |
3.5 |
3 |
Alabama |
SEC |
95.5 |
3.5 |
4 |
Tennessee |
SEC |
92 |
2.5 |
5 |
Michigan |
Big Ten |
89 |
3 |
6 |
Oregon |
Pac-12 |
87.5 |
3 |
7 |
TCU |
Big 12 |
86.5 |
2 |
8 |
Texas |
Big 12 |
85 |
2 |
9 |
USC |
Pac-12 |
84 |
2 |
10 |
LSU |
SEC |
83 |
2.5 |
11 |
Clemson |
ACC |
82.5 |
3.5 |
12 |
Utah |
Pac-12 |
82.5 |
3.5 |
13 |
Kansas State |
Big 12 |
82 |
2 |
14 |
UCLA |
Pac-12 |
81.5 |
2 |
15 |
Baylor |
Big 12 |
80.5 |
2 |
16 |
Florida State |
ACC |
80.5 |
2 |
17 |
Ole Miss |
SEC |
80.5 |
2 |
18 |
Penn State |
Big Ten |
79 |
2.5 |
19 |
Arkansas |
SEC |
78.5 |
2 |
20 |
Kentucky |
SEC |
77 |
2 |
21 |
Minnesota |
Big Ten |
77 |
2 |
22 |
Oklahoma |
Big 12 |
77 |
3.5 |
23 |
Wake Forest |
ACC |
77 |
2.5 |
24 |
Illinois |
Big Ten |
76.5 |
1.5 |
25 |
Oklahoma State |
Big 12 |
76.5 |
3 |
26 |
Notre Dame |
Independent |
76 |
3.5 |
27 |
Louisville |
ACC |
75.5 |
2 |
28 |
North Carolina |
ACC |
75.5 |
2 |
29 |
UCF |
AAC |
75.5 |
3.5 |
30 |
Texas Tech |
Big 12 |
75 |
2 |
31 |
Washington |
Pac-12 |
75 |
2 |
32 |
Texas A&M |
SEC |
74.5 |
3.5 |
33 |
Boise State |
Mountain West |
74 |
2.5 |
34 |
Cincinnati |
AAC |
74 |
3.5 |
35 |
Mississippi State |
SEC |
74 |
2.5 |
36 |
Syracuse |
ACC |
73.5 |
2 |
37 |
Washington State |
Pac-12 |
73.5 |
3 |
38 |
Florida |
SEC |
73 |
3 |
39 |
Oregon State |
Pac-12 |
73 |
2 |
40 |
Purdue |
Big Ten |
73 |
2 |
41 |
Fresno State |
Mountain West |
72.5 |
2.5 |
42 |
Maryland |
Big Ten |
72.5 |
2 |
43 |
West Virginia |
Big 12 |
72.5 |
2.5 |
44 |
Wisconsin |
Big Ten |
72.5 |
2 |
45 |
East Carolina |
AAC |
72 |
1.5 |
46 |
South Alabama |
Sun Belt |
72 |
2 |
47 |
James Madison |
Sun Belt |
71.5 |
2 |
48 |
Appalachian State |
Sun Belt |
71 |
3.5 |
49 |
Iowa State |
Big 12 |
71 |
2.5 |
50 |
Troy |
Sun Belt |
71 |
2 |
51 |
Kansas |
Big 12 |
70.5 |
1 |
52 |
Air Force |
Mountain West |
70 |
2.5 |
53 |
Auburn |
SEC |
70 |
3 |
54 |
Iowa |
Big Ten |
70 |
3 |
55 |
NC State |
ACC |
70 |
3 |
56 |
Toledo |
MAC |
70 |
2.5 |
57 |
Tulane |
AAC |
70 |
3 |
58 |
Missouri |
SEC |
69.5 |
2.5 |
59 |
Pitt |
ACC |
69.5 |
2 |
60 |
South Carolina |
SEC |
68.5 |
2 |
61 |
Arizona State |
Pac-12 |
68 |
2.5 |
62 |
California |
Pac-12 |
68 |
2 |
63 |
San Jose State |
Mountain West |
68 |
2 |
64 |
SMU |
AAC |
68 |
3.5 |
65 |
UAB |
Conference USA |
68 |
3.5 |
66 |
Arizona |
Pac-12 |
67.5 |
2 |
67 |
UTSA |
Conference USA |
67 |
2 |
68 |
Miami (FL) |
ACC |
66.5 |
2.5 |
69 |
BYU |
Independent |
66 |
2 |
70 |
Houston |
AAC |
66 |
2 |
71 |
Michigan State |
Big Ten |
66 |
2 |
72 |
Stanford |
Pac-12 |
66 |
2 |
73 |
Western Kentucky |
Conference USA |
66 |
2 |
74 |
Marshall |
Sun Belt |
65.5 |
2 |
75 |
Memphis |
AAC |
65.5 |
3.5 |
76 |
Coastal Carolina |
Sun Belt |
64 |
2 |
77 |
Liberty |
Independent |
64 |
3.5 |
78 |
Nebraska |
Big Ten |
64 |
1.5 |
79 |
Tulsa |
AAC |
64 |
2 |
80 |
Duke |
ACC |
63.5 |
2 |
81 |
Southern Miss |
Sun Belt |
62.5 |
2 |
82 |
Indiana |
Big Ten |
62 |
2 |
83 |
Rutgers |
Big Ten |
62 |
1.5 |
84 |
Virginia |
ACC |
62 |
3 |
85 |
Louisiana |
Sun Belt |
61.5 |
3 |
86 |
North Texas |
Conference USA |
61.5 |
2 |
87 |
Georgia Southern |
Sun Belt |
61 |
2.5 |
88 |
Buffalo |
MAC |
60.5 |
3.5 |
89 |
Georgia State |
Sun Belt |
60.5 |
2 |
90 |
San Diego State |
Mountain West |
60.5 |
2 |
91 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC |
60 |
2 |
92 |
Arkansas State |
Sun Belt |
59 |
2 |
93 |
Old Dominion |
Sun Belt |
59 |
2 |
94 |
Eastern Michigan |
MAC |
58.5 |
2 |
95 |
Middle Tennessee |
Conference USA |
58.5 |
2.5 |
96 |
Ohio |
MAC |
58.5 |
2 |
97 |
Texas State |
Sun Belt |
58.5 |
1.5 |
98 |
Army |
Independent |
58 |
3 |
99 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC |
58 |
2 |
100 |
Wyoming |
Mountain West |
58 |
2.5 |
101 |
UNLV |
Mountain West |
57.5 |
1 |
102 |
Kent State |
MAC |
57 |
2.5 |
103 |
Navy |
AAC |
57 |
2 |
104 |
Northwestern |
Big Ten |
57 |
2 |
105 |
Rice |
Conference USA |
57 |
1 |
106 |
Utah State |
Mountain West |
57 |
2 |
107 |
Ball State |
MAC |
56 |
2 |
108 |
Florida Atlantic |
Conference USA |
56 |
3 |
109 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
Sun Belt |
55.5 |
2 |
110 |
Miami (OH) |
MAC |
55.5 |
3 |
111 |
Northern Illinois |
MAC |
55.5 |
2 |
112 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC |
55.5 |
1 |
113 |
Colorado |
Pac-12 |
55 |
2 |
114 |
Boston College |
ACC |
54 |
2 |
115 |
Temple |
AAC |
54 |
2 |
116 |
UTEP |
Conference USA |
54 |
1 |
117 |
South Florida |
AAC |
53 |
2 |
118 |
UConn |
Independent |
52.5 |
1 |
119 |
Central Michigan |
MAC |
51.5 |
2.5 |
120 |
Louisiana Tech |
Conference USA |
51.5 |
2 |
121 |
Bowling Green |
MAC |
50.5 |
1 |
122 |
Western Michigan |
MAC |
50 |
2 |
123 |
New Mexico |
Mountain West |
49 |
1 |
124 |
Nevada |
Mountain West |
47.5 |
3 |
125 |
Charlotte |
Conference USA |
46.5 |
2 |
126 |
Colorado State |
Mountain West |
46.5 |
1.5 |
127 |
Hawaii |
Mountain West |
46 |
2 |
128 |
FIU |
Conference USA |
45.5 |
2 |
129 |
New Mexico State |
Independent |
45.5 |
2 |
130 |
Akron |
MAC |
41.5 |
1 |
131 |
UMass |
Independent |
37 |
1.5 |
Here are the Week 10 adjustments:
Up: Southern Miss + 1.5, Utah + 1, FIU + 2.5, East Carolina + 1.5, Illinois + 2, Missouri + 2, Tennessee + 5, Penn State + 1, Louisville + 3, Virginia + 1, Minnesota + 2.5, South Alabama + 2, Oklahoma + 2, Colorado + 3, Charlotte + 2, Fresno State + 6 (Haener return), UCLA + 1.5, Oregon + 1.5, Baylor + 2, Florida + 2, Hawaii + 2, Nevada + 2, Kansas State + 1.5, North Carolina + 2, Arkansas + 1.5, UConn + 2, Florida State + 2, Miami (OH) + 3 (Gabbert return), Temple + 2, Middle Tennessee + 2, San Diego State + 2.5, UCF + 2, Central Michigan + 2, NC State + 2, Iowa + 2, Kansas + 1.5, Alabama + 2
Down: BYU -1.5, Nebraska -1, Boston College -3.5, South Carolina -4, Kentucky -2.5, Georgia Tech -2, Ohio State -1, Wake Forest -2, Syracuse -2, Miami (FL) -1, Cincinnati -2.5, Pitt -2, Arkansas State -2, Iowa State -3.5, Arizona State -2, Rice -2, Stanford -3, Texas Tech -2.5, Navy -4 (QB Lavatai OFY), Wyoming -2, San Jose State -2.5, UTEP -2, Northern Illinois -1, Rutgers -3, Oklahoma State -2, New Mexico -2.5, LSU -2
Injury: Toledo -5 (if Finn out), UAB -4 (if Hopkins out), Utah -5 (if Rising out), Kansas State (-3 if Martinez out), UCF -4 (if Plumlee out), SMU -8 (if Mordecai out; Stone OFY) Tulsa -5 (if Brin out), Kansas -6 (if Daniels out), Utah State -3 (if Legas out), James Madison -6 (if Centeio out)
Some notes on the biggest adjustments:
Tennessee + 5: Tennessee obviously appears to be the real deal. That was a dominant performance offensively and defensively against a pretty good Kentucky team. I still have Georgia a little bit more of a favorite than the market, but have certainly given the Vols their due.
South Carolina -4: Another ghastly offensive performance from the Gamecocks may not allow me to fade them in future weeks as I talked about on our College Football Podcast. South Carolina has had some great special teams this season, but the offense is extremely inefficient. This team is -0.68 yards per play in SEC action. It’s been a lot of smoke and mirrors and last week’s loss to Missouri was a prime example of the regression likely to come.
Boston College -3.5: Losing by double digits to UConn is noticeable for any team. Doing so as a member of a Power Five conference makes it that much worse.
Iowa State -3.5: So, it seems that I’ve gone a little too far with Iowa State based on this week’s line, but the Cyclones made Oklahoma’s defense look good last week. Iowa State is 0-5 in Big 12 play and it’s clear that the losses of Breece Hall and others have caught up with this team.
Injuries: Fresno State went up six points with the return of Jake Haener; Navy went down four points with the loss of Tai Lavatai for the season. Plenty of QBs remain in the spotlight this week.
Here are my Week 10 spreads:
Date |
Away |
Home |
My Line |
11/1 |
Ball State |
Kent State |
-3.5 |
|
Buffalo |
Ohio |
PK |
|
|
|
|
11/2 |
Central Michigan |
Northern Illinois |
-6 |
|
Western Michigan |
Bowling Green |
+ 0.5 |
|
|
|
|
11/3 |
UTEP |
Rice |
-4 |
|
App State |
Coastal Carolina |
+ 5 |
|
|
|
|
11/4 |
Duke |
Boston College |
+ 7.5 |
|
UMass |
UConn |
-16.5 |
|
Oregon State |
Washington |
-4 |
|
|
|
|
11/5 |
Air Force |
Army (N – Arlington) |
+ 12 |
|
UNC |
Virginia |
+ 10.5 |
|
Michigan |
Rutgers |
+ 25.5 |
|
Wake Forest |
NC State |
+ 4 |
|
Florida State |
Miami (FL) |
+ 11.5 |
|
Georgia Tech |
Virginia Tech |
-4 |
|
Iowa |
Purdue |
-5 |
|
Penn State |
Indiana |
+ 15 |
|
James Madison (w/ Centeio) |
Louisville |
-6 |
|
Syracuse |
Pitt |
+ 2 |
|
Oklahoma State |
Kansas (w/ Daniels) |
+ 5 |
|
Navy |
Cincinnati |
-20.5 |
|
USF |
Temple |
-3 |
|
Minnesota |
Nebraska |
+ 11.5 |
|
Marshall |
Old Dominion |
+ 4.5 |
|
Liberty |
Arkansas |
-15.5 |
|
Michigan State |
Illinois |
-12 |
|
Maryland (w/ Tagovailoa) |
Wisconsin |
-2 |
|
Texas |
Kansas State |
+ 1 |
|
Baylor |
Oklahoma |
PK |
|
Kentucky |
Missouri |
+ 5 |
|
Ohio State |
Northwestern |
+ 38.5 |
|
Western Kentucky |
Charlotte |
+ 17.5 |
|
Oregon |
Colorado |
+ 30.5 |
|
BYU |
Boise State |
-10.5 |
|
Arizona |
Utah |
-18.5 |
|
Colorado State |
San Jose State |
-23.5 |
|
Hawaii |
Fresno State |
-29 |
|
Washington State |
Stanford |
+ 5.5 |
|
Cal |
USC |
-18 |
|
Middle Tennessee |
Louisiana Tech |
+ 5 |
|
UCLA |
Arizona State |
+ 11 |
|
Florida |
Texas A&M |
-5 |
|
Tulane |
Tulsa (w/ Brin) |
+ 4 |
|
Houston |
SMU (w/ Mordecai) |
-5.5 |
|
Troy |
Louisiana |
+ 6.5 |
|
Georgia State |
Southern Miss |
-4 |
|
South Carolina |
Vanderbilt |
+ 12 |
|
Auburn |
Mississippi State |
-6.5 |
|
Tennessee |
Georgia |
-10 |
|
Texas Tech |
TCU |
-11.5 |
|
UCF |
Memphis |
+ 6.5 |
|
West Virginia |
Iowa State |
-1 |
|
New Mexico |
Utah State (w/ Legas) |
-10 |
|
UTSA |
UAB (w/ Hopkins) |
-4.5 |
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