Thursday was a hectic day in Tuley’s Takes home office, which is fairly common.
During September, it’s often accompanied by some day baseball, but we didn’t have that this Thursday, so we mostly spent it editing conference previews for the upcoming CBB Betting Guide. We assume most of you have used VSiN’s NHL and NBA Betting Guides to prepare for the current seasons, but if you think those were comprehensive (and they both were thanks to our colleagues Andy MacNeil and Jonathan Von Tobel), remember that there are more than 300 CBB teams in Division I (more than 10 times than in the NBA). So definitely check it out when it gets released. As for current sports in season, I won my Best Bet Thursday on a 2-team, 6-point teaser on the Ravens + 8/Over 40 in the Ravens’ 27-22 win at the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. Actually, I won two Best Bets on the game as my original Best Bet in my Wednesday column in which I gave my “takes” on the full NFL Week 8 card was Buccaneers + 7.5/Over 39.5 as that was available late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, For those who bet that (or something similar) before the linen move to favoritism on the Buccaneers, I wrote in yesterday’s column that they could shoot for a middle with the Ravens – and both cashed in the Ravens’ 5-point win. Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s betting action and then look for plays on Friday with the World Series finally starting and a couple of college football games. Then, as has become our custom here this season, we’ll rerun our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 8 card, including updates based on how the lines are moving.Thursday’s Recaps
CFB: No. 14 Utah (7.5-point road favorite) held off Washington State 21-17 late Thursday, but did NOT cover the spread (game stayed way Under betting total of 56.5 points). Earlier, No. 24 North Carolina State (12.5-point home fave) beat Virginia Tech 22-21 but also didn't cover (game went Over low total of 39).
NBA: Faves went 3-1 SU and ATS Thursday (after going 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS on Wednesday). The night’s only upset was by the Thunder (+ 7 in 118-110 win vs. Clippers). Mavericks (-2.5 in 129-135 win at Nets), Warriors (-6 in 123-110 win vs. Heat) and Grizzlies (-2.5 in 125-110 win at Kings) covered in their wins. Home/road teams split 2-2 SU and ATS. Overs went 3-1.
More NBA: Faves improved to 46-21 SU on the regular season with 2 pick-’ems, while dogs still lead 32-30-5 ATS (51.6%). Home teams lead 41-28 SU and 33-31-5 ATS (51.6%). Overs took a 34-32-3 (51.5%) lead.
NHL: Faves/dogs split 5-5 Thursday with upsets by the Sharks (+ 190 in 4-3 OT win vs. Maple Leafs), Flyers (+ 175 vs. Panthers), Canadiens (+ 160 at Sabres), Jets (+ 125 at Kings) and Canucks (+ 105 at Kraken). Home/road teams also split 5-5. Overs led 6-4. Faves lead 70-44 on the season with 6 pick-’ems. Home teams lead 67-51 with 2 neutral-site games. Unders' lead dipped to 60-59-1.
Friday’s Takes
Phillies 1st 5 + 0.5 -115 at Astros: In picking the Phillies vs. the Padres in the NLCS, we mentioned that former Cub Kyle Schwarber and Las Vegas native Bryce Harper are two of my favorite players. We’re backing them again in the World Series and don’t mind facing Justin Verlander in Game 1 as we’ll take the lefty-vs.-righty advantage. Besides, Philadelphian starting pitcher Aaron Nola might have a 13-14 record compared to 19-3 for Velander, but Nola has a 0.97 WHIP, which compares favorably vs. Verlander’s 0.86. So, we see a low-scoring first 5 innings and like that we only have to lay -115 to get the + 0,5 in case the game is tied after 5 innings. We’re also taking the Phillies + 170 to win the series,
East Carolina + 3 at BYU: This BYU team isn’t as strong as they’ve had in recent years, so we’ll take the points with an underrated ECU (5-2 SU and ATS) team that covered vs. a ranked North Carolina State in a 21-20 loss in the season-opener and also upset Central Florida 34-14 last Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog,
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule.
Our “dog-or-pass” approach has worked well so far this season thanks to dogs going 59-44-3 ATS (57.3%). We went 3-3 ATS with our Best Bets in Week 7 with wins on the Giants + 3 at the Jaguars, Buccaneers + 13 vs. the Buccaneers and Seahawks + 5 at the Chargers as all three not only covered but pulled outright upsets. We lost on the Lions + 7 at the Cowboys, Falcons + 6.5 at the Bengals and Texans + 7 at the Raiders. The 3-3 ATS mark made sense as faves/dogs split 7-7 ATS overall on the weekend, though we were disappointed to miss the upsets by the Commanders over the Packers and Bears over the Patriots. Without further ado, let’s go over the NFL Week 8 card. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Tampa Bay BuccaneersThe Thursday nighter gives us a matchup of co-division leaders, but both the Ravens (4-3) and Buccaneers (3-4) are seen as teams off to disappointing starts. Tom Brady is arguably at the low point of his career after the Bucs’ 21-3 loss to the Panthers as 13-point road favorites after managing just a field goal. That dropped Tampa Bay to No. 22 in the NFL in total offense at just 330.6 yards per game and No. 17 in scoring offense at just 17.7 points per game. The Ravens’ problems aren’t on the offensive side of the ball as Lamar Jackson is playing like the former MVP that he is, but the defense is ranked No. 23 and that doesn’t even tell the whole story as Baltimore has blown three double-digit leads in the fourth quarter. With that in mind, we expect this to be another close game, so we can’t pass up the Buccaneers in 2-team, 6-point teasers as we can move them through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to + 7.5. We’ll start a couple of teasers to game s on Sunday (Saints + 8 vs. Raiders, Jets + 7.5 vs. Patriots and Rams + 7.5 vs. 49ers are the top options as of this writing). For our purposes on Thursday night, let’s go with Buccaneers + 7.5/Over 39 similar to what we did last Thursday when we cashed in on Saints + 8.5/Over 38 when the Saints lost to the Cardinals in a 42-34 shootout but got in the back door to win our teaser.
Best Bet: Buccaneers + 7.5/Over 39, plus other 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: split pretty much 50/50 in my rare SU and ATS contest that use Thursday night games, slight lean to the Bucs).
Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) in LondonSet your alarm to get up early Sunday as we have another game from London. As of Tuesday night, it wasn’t officially announced if Russell Wilson will return to the lineup. Considering this line was as high as Jaguars -4.5 and has been bet down to 2.5, I’m guessing someone knows (or is speculating heavily) that Wilson is going to play. Coach Nathaniel Hackett said that the decision could come on Wednesday. If Wilson does play (and Denver still remains a dog), I think the Broncos are teasable along with the Saints, Jets and Rams as mentioned above. Just like last week when I faded the Jaguars with the Giants, I’m not so sure Jacksonville should be favored at all, especially on a neutral field.
Best Bet: Broncos + 8.5/Saints + 8, plus other 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in both SU and ATS contests).
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9)
The Cowboys, who beat the Lions 24-6 in Dak Prescott’s return on Sunday, opened as 10-point home favorites in this game, though it was adjusted down to 9 at most books after the Bears’ shocking 33-14 upset of the Patriots on Monday Night Football. I was bummed that I didn’t back my hometown Bears as I was with most other bettors that didn’t think they would be able to beat the Patriots (or even cover as 8.5-point dogs). However, I also don’t think I’ll be pulling the trigger in this game either. While Justin Fields and the Bears offense performed better than expected against a strong Patriots defense (which shut out the Lions in Week 5 and held the Browns to 15 points in Week 6), the Cowboys’ defense is even better.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 90/10 in SU pools).
Las Vegas Raiders (-2) at New Orleans Saints