Bears +8 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
The Patriots have been on a roll lately, winning their last two games by a combined 52 points. That has clearly effected the market perception of New England, as this line is actually higher than what the Vikings were laying against Chicago just two weeks ago. Minnesota is a higher power rated team than New England in my eyes and I think 7 is the correct number here. It's always scary backing a young QB like Justin Fields against a Bill Belichick defense but his defenses have historically struggled to stop running QBs. It's not much different than what his disciple, Nick Saban's achilles heal has been as well at Alabama. We just saw a few weeks ago, Lamar Jackson tear up this New England defense with 107 rush yards and 37 points. This defense has historically also struggled against guys like Russell Wilson as well. Some of it is that the Patriots defenders are very smart and cerebrial and know exactly what spots to be in but when plays get broken and there is a scrambl e situation they are not overly athletic or fast and have a difficult time defending those runs. Not that I think Fields will post huge scoring numbers but I think his mobility and ability to run for first downs will help extend some drives.
We are likely to see the return of QB Mac Jones and he won't be fully mobile with that bad ankle. The Bears can get some pressure, 8th'in pressure rate, and do so without ever blitzing (32nd'in blitz rate). They will force Jones to dump it short against this Matt Eberflus zone. Jones has been a below average starter the last two seasons against zone defenses. He's a top 10 QB against man to man defenses.
In a game that is going to be very slow (NE 26th'in pace and Chicago 15th) with two teams that run the ball at top 10 highest rates, that should cater more for the underdog to cover. There are less plays and time for the favorite to create such a big margin or extend that margin. The Patriots defense isn't great and can be run on. They are 29th'in run efficiency allowed and have been burned by explosive pass plays as well, allowing the 4th'highest rate in the NFL. Chicago won't be able to consistently move the ball through the air but Fields is excellent in downfield passing and can hit on a few chunk plays.