Thursday was an action-packed sports betting day as we had a Sports Equinox (when the “Big 4” major team sports – NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB – had games on the same day). We’re told it was only the 27th such day ever, though obviously not as rare as it used to be as we’ll have more on Sunday and Monday, as well as Halloween.
We ended up cashing our Best Bet of the day on a 2-team, 6-point teaser in the Thursday Night Football game with Saints + 8.5/Over 37.5. The Over was a piece of cake as that came in by halftime with the Cardinals leading the Saints 28-14. The Saints’ leg of the teaser looked in doubt as the Cards increased their lead to 35-17 by the end of the third quarter, but the Saints rallied and Will Lutz kicked a 45-yard FG with 42 seconds to play to pull within 8 points to get us the cash. We did lose our Yankees 1st 5 + 0.5 -115 bet as the Astros led 3-2 after the first 5 innings. Without further ado, let’s get to all of our nightly recaps (since there are so many), then I’ll try to find some plays for Friday and then update our Wednesday column with our “takes” on the rest of the NFL Week 7 card. Thursday’s RecapsNFL: Cardinals (2.5-point home favorites) beat Saints 42-34 on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 7 (game flew Over total of 44 points). Saints' late FG cashed 6-point teasers on Saints + 8.5 (Twitterverse was full of people deleting premature posts about “Wong teasers” losing again LOL).
More NFL: Faves improved to 55-37-1 SU on the season with 2 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 52-38-3 ATS (57.8%). Home teams lead 50-42-1 SU with 2 neutral-site games in London, but road teams still lead 47-43-3 ATS (52.8%). Unders dropped to 56-38-1 (59.6%), while primetime Unders dipped to 13-7 (65%) and 5-2 (71.4%) on TNF.
MLB: Astros (-135 home favorites) beat Yankees 3-2 on Thursday night to take a 2-0 lead in the ALCS (game stayed Under betting total of 7 runs). Faves took 3-1 lead in LCS round, faves/dogs now tied 14-14 overall with 1 pick-'em. Home teams also improved to 3-1 lead in this round and 17-12 overall. Unders improved to 3-1 in this round and 15-13-1 overall.
NBA: Clippers (5-point “road” favorites) beat Lakers 103-97 late Thursday, covering thanks to Robert Covington's 2 FTs with 2.4 seconds left (stayed way Under betting total of 227 points). Earlier, Bucks (4-point road dogs) upset 76ers 90-88 on a late 3-pointer by Wesley Matthews (stayed way Under 224.5).
More NBA: Faves/dogs split 1-1 SU and ATS on Thursday. After 3 days of regular season, faves lead 11-5 SU, but dogs still lead 8-6-2 ATS. Road teams 2-0 SU and ATS, so home teams dropped to 9-7 SU, while road teams improved to 10-4-2 ATS. Unders went 2-0 and took 8-6-2 lead.
NHL: Faves went 7-4 Thursday with Capitals-Senators closing pick-'em. The biggest upsets were by the Sabres (+ 245 at Flames) and Sharks (+ 240 at Rangers). Home teams went 9-3 while Overs led 8-4. On the season, faves lead 44-24 with 1 PK, home teams lead 42-26 with 2 neutral-site games in Prague, Overs improve to 41-28-1.
CFB: Underdogs went 2-0 ATS with 2 outright upsets as Virginia (3.5-point road dog) beat Georgia Tech 16-9 and Troy (3-point road dog) beat South Alabama 10-6. Both games obviously stayed way Under their betting totals of 48 and 47, respectively.
Friday’s Takes
Phillies 1st 5 + 100 vs. Padres: Before the NLCS started, I wrote that I would probably be backing the road dog in each game of the series as I assumed the Phillies would be favored at home, but the Padres are actually favored with Joe Musgrove on the mound. I’m not afraid to fade Musgrove, especially as I like the fact that the Phillies’ left-handed sluggers, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, get to face a right-handed pitcher (and one they beat 6-2 the last time they faced on June 23).
CFB: I don’t have any college football plays for Friday, but here are my early plays for Saturday (basically dogs I believe can win outright, but will gladly take the points): Kansas State + 3.5 at TCU, Indiana + 3 at Rutgers, Utah State + 4.5 at Wyoming, UCLA + 6.5 at Oregon, Oklahoma State + 6.5 vs. Texas and Mississippi + 2.5 at LSU. Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I also have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to bet the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has continued to work very well so far this season as dogs are 52-37-3 ATS (58.4%) vs. my Vegas consensus closing lines with 2 games closing pick’-em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2, Titans-Commanders in Week 5). Last week, faves went 8-6 SU but faves/dogs split 7-7 ATS with the Broncos the only ATS-covering dog that didn’t win outright. It was shaping up as an awesome Sunday as I won my first 3 Best Bets from this column on the Jets + 7.5 at the Packers, Falcons + 4.5 vs. the 49ers and Patriots + 2.5 at the Browns all not only covering but pulling outright upsets. It was setting up to be an epic day as the Panthers (+ 10 at the Rams) jumped out to an early lead, but unfortunately they couldn’t hold on as they not only lost but also failed to cover in a 24-10 loss. Then, on Sunday night, the Cowboys (+ 6.5) rallied to get within 20-17 of the Eagles but ended up losing 26-17 and failing to cover. We did hit our top 2-team, 6-point teasers on the Saints + 8/Seahawks + 8.5 and Chiefs + 8/Seahawks + 8.5, but it could have been so much better. We’ll try to find the same kind of live dogs this weekend. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2)After two straight Thursday night duds (the Colts’ 12-9 win at the Broncos in Week 5 and the Commanders’ 12-7 win at the Bears in Week 6), this week’s matchup at least has an intriguing storyline with DeAndre Hopkins returning from his 6-game PED suspension. The Cardinals’ offense has been woeful (ranked No. 16 at 346 yards per game) without him, especially in first halves. Arizona QB Kyler Murray is clearly better with Hopkins, but will the improvement be enough against a Saints team that needs this game just as much as the Cardinals as both teams are 2-4. As of deadline Tuesday night, it was still uncertain whether Jameis Winston would return or if Andy Dalton will get another start. Either way, the play is to tease the Saints up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. This line opened Cardinals -1.5 but has been steadily drifting higher, so tease + 2.5 up to + 8.5 if you can get it. There are several teasers to pair this with on Sunday (we’ll get to th ose in a bit), but for our purposes here, let’s use it with the Over 38.5 in this game.
Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Saints + 8.5/Over 38.5.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
I gave out the Lions as one of my early Best Bets for this week on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights, or 15 minutes into the archived version). This is partly a fade of the Cowboys, who might be throwing a rusty Dak Prescott back into the starting lineup, but it’s mostly a play on the Lions, who have been golden in the underdog role (11-6 ATS last year, 3-1 ATS this year with a loss the only time they were favored vs. the Seahawks). Granted, the Lions were shut out 29-0 at the Patriots in Week 5, but we’re counting on them to have used their much-needed bye week to get back on track as Jared Goff and the Lions were the top offensive team in the league through the first four weeks of the season and are still No. 2 at 411.8 yard per game and No. 3 with 28 points per game. In addition, we picked up a nice little tidbit from our VSiN colleague Steve Makinen’s “post-bye week” column as the Lions are 7-2- 1 SU and 9-1 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012.
Best Bet: Lions + 7 (pool play: Lions 67/33 in ATS contests – higher at 7.5, lower at 6.5 – though Cowboys still 70/30 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)This is another early game I gave out and bet I made right away as I was stunned that the red-hot Giants (5-1 SU and ATS) were this big of an underdog against the Jaguars (2-4 SU and ATS). Well, it wasn’t too much of a surprise as that’s around where the advance line was over the summer and up through last week, but I thought the Giants’ start and especially their upsets of the Packers and Ravens the past two weeks would have this line moving toward the G-men. In fact, I’m not sure the right team is favored as the Jaguars – as improved as they are – shouldn't be the chalk as the only time they’ve been put in the favorite’s role this season was two weeks ago when they lost 13-6 to the Texans as 7-point home favorites. The only thing I feared was that I would be on a public dog, which is usually the kiss of death, but I’m pot-committed here.