In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing on Wednesday – I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
Freedman's Week 7 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 7 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page'on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| ARI | NO | -2 | 0 | 2 |
| BAL | CLE | -6.5 | -7.25 | -0.75 |
| CIN | ATL | -6 | -5.5 | 0.5 |
| DAL | DET | -7 | -5.5 | 1.5 |
| WAS | GB | 5.5 | 4.25 | -1.25 |
| CAR | TB | 10.5 | 10 | -0.5 |
| JAX | NYG | -3 | -1.25 | 1.75 |
| TEN | IND | -2.5 | -1.75 | 0.75 |
| LV | HOU | -7 | -7.5 | -0.5 |
| DEN | NYJ | -1 | -2.25 | -1.25 |
| SF | KC | 3 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
| LAC | SEA | -6.5 | -6.5 | 0 |
| MIA | PIT | -7 | -7.75 | -0.75 |
| NE | CHI | -8 | -7 | 1 |
Based on my current projections, I'm willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.
- Saints +2 at Cardinals
- Ravens -6.5 vs. Browns
- Lions +7 at Cowboys
- Giants +3 at Jaguars
- Dolphins -7 vs. Steelers
Freedman's Week 7 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff:'Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location:'State Farm Stadium
- TV:'PRIME
Saints at Cardinals: Consensus'Lines
- Spread:'Cardinals -2
- Over/Under: 44
- Moneyline: Cardinals -130, Saints +110
Saints at Cardinals: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Saints – 32% bets, 40% money
- Over/Under: Under – 46% bets, 80% money
- Moneyline: Saints – 31% bets, 74% money
Saints at Cardinals: Injuries
Saints: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
| Michael Thomas | WR | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Andrus Peat | G | Chest | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Adam Trautman | TE | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | Abdomen | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Keith Kirkwood | WR | Ankle | DNP | DNP | LP | Questionable |
| Paulson Adebo | CB | Knee | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Calvin Throckmorton | OT | Hip | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Payton Turner | DE | Chest | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
Saints: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Ethan Greenidge | OL | IR |
| Deonte Harty | WR/RS | IR |
| Albert Huggins | DT | IR |
| D’Marco Jackson | LB | IR |
| Forrest Lamp | OL | IR |
| Smoke Monday | SAF | IR |
| Trevor Penning | OT | IR |
| Alontae Taylor | CB | IR |
| P.J. Williams | CB | IR |
| Dylan Soehner | TE | PUP |
Saints Injury News
Cardinals: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed | Game Status |
| Marquise Brown | WR | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Dennis Gardeck | LB | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Justin Pugh | G | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Darrel Williams | RB | Knee | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| James Conner | RB | Ribs | DNP | DNP | DNP | Questionable |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | DNP | DNP | DNP | Questionable |
| Jalen Thompson | FS | Hamstring | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Trayvon Mullen | CB | Hamstring | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tae Daley | S | IR |
| Marquis Hayes | OL | IR |
| Joshua Miles | OL | IR |
| Nick Vigil | ILB | IR |
| Jonathan Ward | RB | IR |
| Charles Washington | S | IR |
| Cody Ford | OL | IR-DFR |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | IR-DFR |
Cardinals Injury News
Saints at Cardinals: Notable Trends
Saints Trends
- 2022 Saints: 2-4 ATS (26.0% ROI for faders)
- 2022 Saints: 2-1 ATS (27.5% ROI) with QB Andy Dalton
- 2022 Road Underdogs: 31-21 ATS (13.7% ROI)
Cardinals Trends
- 2022 Cardinals: 3-3 ATS (-4.5 ROI)
- HC Kliff Kingsbury:'8-15 ATS (25.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 10-13 ML (67.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury:'10-17 ATS (21.1% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 9-17-1 ML (45.8% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kliff Kingsbury:'4-11 ATS (40.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 6-9 ML (74.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Saints at Cardinals: Team Statistics
Saints Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.013 | 19 | 0.023 | 18 | -1 |
| Total SR | 47.2% | 8 | 48.9% | 30 | 22 |
| Total DVOA | -1.4% | 18 | 6.2% | 20 | 2 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.028 | 23 | 0.138 | 27 | 4 |
| Dropback SR | 46.6% | 16 | 53.4% | 32 | 16 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.7% | 26 | 16.1% | 24 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.5% | 20 | 5.4% | 27 | 7 |
| Rush EPA | 0.008 | 7 | -0.169 | 4 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 48.2% | 3 | 41.4% | 17 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 15.3% | 2 | -9.3% | 11 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.14 | 2 | 4.21 | 10 | 8 |
| Yards per Play | 5.9 | 6 | 5.6 | 17 | 11 |
| Points per Game | 23.5 | 11 | 23.7 | 22 | 11 |
Cardinals Offense vs. Saints Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.027 | 20 | 0.01 | 15 | -5 |
| Total SR | 42.3% | 23 | 42.9% | 13 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | -13.1% | 26 | 4.5% | 18 | -8 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.028 | 23 | 0.131 | 26 | 3 |
| Dropback SR | 42.0% | 25 | 46.5% | 20 | -5 |
| Pass DVOA | -9.3% | 27 | 13.2% | 21 | -6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.4% | 14 | 6.7% | 17 | 3 |
| Rush EPA | -0.027 | 13 | -0.175 | 3 | -10 |
| Rush SR | 42.9% | 11 | 37.3% | 7 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -8.4% | 20 | -7.3% | 14 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.35 | 20 | 4.61 | 20 | 0 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 29 | 5.6 | 17 | -12 |
| Points per Game | 19 | 22 | 26.3 | 29 | 7 |
Saints at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Andy Dalton
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 7.1 | 12 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.9 | 35 |
Career: Andy Dalton
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -7.3
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.04 | 25 |
| AY/A | 5.6 | 31 |
| QBR | 46.6 | 19 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.9 | 8 |
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: 64.5
Key Matchup: Saints Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense
The Saints are without WRs Michael Thomas (foot) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle) — but I don’t think that matters.
The Saints have averaged 30 points over the past three games with backup QB Andy Dalton, whom I think will start again this week, and Thomas has been out that entire time.
As for Landry, he was out for Weeks 5-6, and in Week 4 he was targeted just twice, so his absence isn’t impactful, and Trautman is just a rotational player.
What really matters for the Saints — in terms of their receivers — is that they have pass-catching RB Alvin Kamara (12-116-0 receiving on 15 targets in two games with Dalton) and sensational rookie WR Chris Olave (No. 1 in the league with 158 air yards and yards after catch per game).
NFL Leaders in AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch) per game (Weeks 1-6):
1. Olave: 158
2. Tyreek: 154
3. Davante: 146
4. Diggs: 144.8
5. Kupp: 141
6. Hollywood: 138
7. Ja'Marr: 132
8T. Jefferson: 130
8T. Sutton: 130
10. Andrews: 126.5
11. Big Mike: 126
12. Waddle: 124— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 19, 2022
With those two, the Saints should be able to move the ball via the air, especially against a weak Cardinals defense that is No. 32 in pass DVOA against running backs (59.2%) and No. 32 in dropback success rate (53.4%).
Kamara and Olave should get theirs.
Plus, Dalton has been solid in relief of Winston — perhaps solid enough to keep the starting job. He’s No. 12 on the season with a 7.1 AY/A (vs. 6.2 for Winston), primarily because he has been able to avoid the back-breaking interceptions that are a constitutive part of Winston’s game (1 INT, 1.2% INT rate vs. 5 INTs, 4.3% INT rate for Winston).
With Dalton keeping the ball safe and the Saints able to move at will, they should be able to keep this game close against a Cardinals team that tends to start slow and give contests away.
Best Line: Saints +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Saints +2 (-110)
Personal Projection: Pick’Em
Limit: Saints +1.5
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
- Kickoff:'Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location:'M&T Bank Field
- TV:'CBS
Browns at Ravens: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Ravens -6.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Ravens -275, Browns +230
Browns at Ravens: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Ravens – 55% bets, 70% money
- Over/Under: Under – 31% bets, 35% money
- Moneyline: Browns – 7% bets, 57% money
Browns at Ravens: Injuries
Browns: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Joel Bitonio | G | Not Injury Related – Rest | DNP |
| Jadeveon Clowney | DE | Ankle | DNP |
| Jack Conklin | OT | Ankle | DNP |
| Amari Cooper | WR | Not Injury Related – Rest | DNP |
| Tony Fields II | LB | Illness | DNP |
| Myles Garrett | DE | Shoulder, Biceps | DNP |
| Joe Haeg | OT | Concussion | DNP |
| David Njoku | TE | Not Injury Related – Rest | DNP |
| Wyatt Teller | G | Calf | DNP |
| Denzel Ward | CB | Concussion | DNP |
| Alex Wright | DE | Quad, Glute | FP |
Browns: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Dawson Deaton | G | IR |
| Jerome Ford | RB | IR |
| Jakeem Grant Sr. | WR | IR |
| Nick Harris | C | IR |
| Jesse James | TE | IR |
| Chris Odom | DE | IR |
| Anthony Walker Jr. | LB | IR |
| Stephen Weatherly | DE | IR |
| Isaiah Weston | WR | IR |
| Chase Winovich | DE | IR |
| Deion Jones | MLB | IR-DFR |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | Susp |
Browns Injury News
Ravens: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Mark Andrews | TE | Knee | DNP |
| Calais Campbell | DE | Foot | DNP |
| Ben Cleveland | G | Foot | DNP |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | Knee | DNP |
| Devin Duvernay | WR | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Morgan Moses | OT | Heel | DNP |
| Marcus Peters | CB | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Patrick Ricard | FB | Knee | DNP |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | Foot | LP |
| Justin Houston | OLB | Groin | LP |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | Hip | LP |
| Ronnie Stanley | OT | NIR-Rest/Ankle | LP |
| Justice Hill | RB | Hamstring | FP |
Ravens: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Vince Biegel | OLB | IR |
| Kyle Fuller | CB | IR |
| Daelin Hayes | OLB | IR |
| Ja’Wuan James | T | IR |
| Charlie Kolar | TE | IR |
| Steven Means | OLB | IR |
| Michael Pierce | NT | IR |
| Josh Ross | ILB | IR |
| Marcus Williams | S | IR |
| David Ojabo | OLB | IR-NFI |
| Tyus Bowser | OLB | PUP |
| Gus Edwards | RB | PUP |
Ravens Injury News
Browns at Ravens: Notable Trends
Browns Trends
- 2022 Browns: 2-4 ATS (27.2% ROI for faders)
- HC Kevin Stefanski:'2-11 ATS (61.2% ROI for faders) in division
- HC Kevin Stefanski:'0-4 ATS (92.7% ROI for faders) vs. Ravens
Ravens Trends
- 2022 Ravens: 3-3 ATS (-5.4 ROI)
- HC John Harbaugh: 4-0 ATS (92.7% ROI) vs. HC Kevin Stefanski
Browns at Ravens: Team Statistics
Browns Offense vs. Ravens Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.068 | 5 | 0.065 | 27 | 22 |
| Total SR | 44.5% | 14 | 46.7% | 27 | 13 |
| Total DVOA | 10.9% | 8 | 0.5% | 16 | 8 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.041 | 18 | 0.111 | 23 | 5 |
| Dropback SR | 43.5% | 22 | 48.7% | 27 | 5 |
| Pass DVOA | 13.8% | 14 | 0.8% | 10 | -4 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.9% | 6 | 6.4% | 20 | 14 |
| Rush EPA | 0.101 | 1 | -0.036 | 20 | 19 |
| Rush SR | 45.7% | 4 | 42.1% | 18 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 12.8% | 4 | 0.1% | 24 | 20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.85 | 6 | 4.80 | 27 | 21 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 11 | 5.7 | 20 | 9 |
| Points per Game | 24.7 | 7 | 23.5 | 20 | 13 |
Ravens Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.088 | 4 | 0.137 | 31 | 27 |
| Total SR | 46.4% | 10 | 43.9% | 17 | 7 |
| Total DVOA | 17.4% | 3 | 15.6% | 31 | 28 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.101 | 10 | 0.121 | 24 | 14 |
| Dropback SR | 47.9% | 12 | 44.6% | 13 | 1 |
| Pass DVOA | 33.9% | 4 | 17.5% | 27 | 23 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 12 | 6.3% | 21 | 9 |
| Rush EPA | 0.068 | 2 | 0.162 | 32 | 30 |
| Rush SR | 44.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 20 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | 13.7% | 3 | 13.1% | 30 | 27 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.25 | 22 | 5.17 | 31 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 26 |
| Points per Game | 26.3 | 5 | 27.2 | 30 | 25 |
Browns at Ravens: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Jacoby Brissett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.075 | 16 |
| AY/A | 5.9 | 28 |
| QBR | 58.2 | 10 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.0 | 27 |
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -33.6
2022: Lamar Jackson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.111 | 6 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 64.1 | 5 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.6 | 5 |
Career: Lamar Jackson
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: 82.1
Key Matchup: Ravens Rush Offense vs. Browns Rush Defense
The Ravens have a top-three run offense and the Browns have a bottom-three run defense.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.068 | 2 | 0.162 | 32 | 30 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.137 | 3 | 0.131 | 30 | 27 |
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Ravens — now with LT Ronnie Stanley healthy — have the eighth-best offensive line, while the Browns have the eighth-worst defensive line.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | CLE | BAL | 8 | -17 |
No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) is uncertain after exiting Week 6 early and missing Wednesday practice, but backup RB Kenyan Drake (10-119-1 rushing) played well in his place last week, and No. 3 Justice Hill (6.6 yards per carry this year) practiced fully yesterday, so he seems likely to return this week.
And of course the Ravens have QB Lamar Jackson, who has a position-high 451 yards rushing this year.
As for the Browns, they’re bad against the run anyway — and they are without EDGEs Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR) and Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR) and LB Anthony Walker (leg, IR) and might be without EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle) and LB Deion Jones (shoulder, IR-DFR).
If a home team can control the clock with the ground game, it has the ability to pile on the points, and I think that’s what the Ravens will do.
Best Line: Ravens -6 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Ravens -6 (-110)
Personal Projection: Ravens -7.25
Limit: Ravens -6.5
- Kickoff:'Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium
- TV:'CBS
Lions at Cowboys: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Cowboys -7
- Over/Under: 49
- Moneyline: Cowboys -315, Lions +265
Lions at Cowboys: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Lions – 52% bets, 85% money
- Over/Under: Under – 43% bets, 64% money
- Moneyline: Lions – 12% bets, 46% money
Lions at Cowboys: Injuries
Lions: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Chris Board | LB | Knee | DNP |
| D.J. Chark | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| Taylor Decker | OT | Personal | DNP |
| Charles Harris | DE | Groin | DNP |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | SAF | Ankle | DNP |
| Matt Nelson | OT | Calf | DNP |
| Bobby Price | DB | Knee | DNP |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | Knee | DNP |
| John Cominsky | DE | Wrist | LP |
| Will Harris | DB | Hip | LP |
| Frank Ragnow | C | Foot | LP |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | Ankle/Shoulder | LP |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Ankle | FP |
Lions: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Quintez Cephus | WR | IR |
| Tommy Kraemer | G | IR |
| Levi Onwuzurike | DL | IR |
| Halapoulivaati Vaitai | G | IR |
| Tracy Walker III | S | IR |
| Jameson Williams | WR | IR-NFI |
| Jason Cabinda | FB | PUP |
| Jerry Jacobs | CB | PUP |
| Romeo Okwara | DL | PUP |
| Josh Paschal | DL | PUP |
Lions Injury News
Cowboys: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | Hip | LP |
| Quinton Bohanna | DT | Shoulder | FP |
| Neville Gallimore | DT | Wrist | FP |
| Devin Harper | LB | Achilles | FP |
| Jason Peters | OT | Chest | FP |
| Dak Prescott | QB | Right Thumb | FP |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | Knee | FP |
Cowboys: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tarell Basham | DE | IR |
| Devante Bond | LB | IR |
| Ian Bunting | TE | IR |
| Simi Fehoko | WR | IR |
| Damone Clark | LB | IR-NFI |
Cowboys Injury News
Lions at Cowboys: Notable Trends
Lions Trends
- 2022 Lions: 3-2 ATS (16.1% ROI)
- HC Dan Campbell: 14-7 ATS (27.5% ROI) as underdog
- HC Dan Campbell: 5-1 ATS (58.8% ROI) vs. teams with winning records at time of game
Cowboys Trends
- 2022 Cowboys: 4-2 ATS (27.8% ROI)
- QB Dak Prescott: 7-14-1 ATS (27.8% ROI for faders) as home favorite outside division
Lions at Cowboys: Team Statistics
Lions Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.012 | 16 | -0.091 | 5 | -11 |
| Total SR | 41.3% | 26 | 40.3% | 4 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | 7.6% | 9 | -16.7% | 6 | -3 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.001 | 19 | -0.091 | 6 | -13 |
| Dropback SR | 42.4% | 24 | 42.0% | 6 | -18 |
| Pass DVOA | 12.3% | 15 | -24.6% | 3 | -12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 3.3% | 1 | 10.4% | 1 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | -0.090 | 12 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 39.7% | 22 | 37.5% | 8 | -14 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.3% | 5 | -5.4% | 17 | 12 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.07 | 3 | 4.30 | 13 | 10 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 2 | 4.6 | 3 | 1 |
| Points per Game | 28 | 3 | 16.3 | 3 | 0 |
Cowboys Offense vs. Lions Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.069 | 25 | 0.195 | 32 | 7 |
| Total SR | 41.4% | 25 | 49.9% | 31 | 6 |
| Total DVOA | -0.3% | 17 | 19.7% | 32 | 15 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.089 | 29 | 0.252 | 32 | 3 |
| Dropback SR | 39.9% | 28 | 51.9% | 30 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | 4.0% | 21 | 24.1% | 32 | 11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.8% | 5 | 4.9% | 28 | 23 |
| Rush EPA | -0.043 | 16 | 0.107 | 31 | 15 |
| Rush SR | 43.2% | 9 | 46.6% | 29 | 20 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.2% | 6 | 13.7% | 31 | 25 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.73 | 8 | 4.75 | 25 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 23 | 6.5 | 32 | 9 |
| Points per Game | 18.3 | 23 | 34 | 32 | 9 |
Lions at Cowboys: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Jared Goff
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.046 | 23 |
| AY/A | 7.5 | 7 |
| QBR | 57.6 | 11 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.8 | 13 |
Career: Jared Goff
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 4.8
2022: Dak Prescott
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.2 | 11 |
Career: Dak Prescott
- AY/A: 7.8
- QB Elo per Game: 54.4
Key Matchup: Lions Offensive Line vs. Cowboys Defensive Line
Last year I thought the Cowboys defense was fraudulent, living off an unsustainable league-high 26 interceptions while still allowing the 12th-most yards per play (5.5).
But this year' they have proven themselves to be legitimate. They’re not as opportunistic, but they’re better overall, ranking No. 1 in sacks (24), No. 2 in quarterback hits (51) and No. 3 in yards per play (4.6).
With a strong quintet of EDGE rushers — Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler and Sam Williams — the Cowboys can get after the passer.
They rank No. 1 in defensive adjusted sack rate (10.4%).
But in this game they might just meet their match — because the Lions are No. 1 in offensive adjusted sack rate (3.3%).
I personally have the Lions with the No. 1 offensive line in the league. As a staff, the FantasyPros experts have their line ranked No. 3. Either way, the large advantage that the Cowboys defensive line normally has over opposing units isn’t manifest in our unit power rankings.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | DET | 3 | 2 |
And I’d argue that the Lions actually have the edge in this OL-vs.-DL matchup, because the Cowboys can be pushed around a little in the ground game, and the Lions are their best on offense when they’re running the ball. In most key rush metrics, the Lions offense is in the top five, and the Cowboys defense is outside the top 10.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | -0.090 | 12 | 8 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.3% | 5 | -5.4% | 17 | 12 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.07 | 3 | 4.30 | 13 | 10 |
Coming off the bye week, the Lions have had extra time to prepare for the Cowboys pass rush, and they’re healthy: RB D’Andre Swift (ankle, shoulder) practiced limitedly on Wednesday, so he’s likely to play, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) practiced fully, and his presence on the field should prevent the Cowboys from stacking the box against the run.
With their offensive line, the Lions can dominate the ground game and protect QB Jared Goff, who has been effective this year, ranking top-12 in both AY/A (7.5) and QBR (57.6).
And that means the Lions can cover.
Best Line: Lions +7 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Lions +7 (-110)
Personal Projection: Lions +5.5
Limit: Lions +6.5
View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>
- Kickoff:'Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location:'TIAA Bank Field
- TV:'FOX
Giants at Jaguars: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Jaguars -3
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Jaguars -165, Giants +140
Giants at Jaguars: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Jaguars – 35% bets, 49% money
- Over/Under: Under – 47% bets, 74% money
- Moneyline: Giants – 50% bets, 75% money
Giants at Jaguars: Injuries
Giants: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Cordale Flott | CB | Calf | DNP |
| Kenny Golladay | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Jason Pinnock | CB | Ankle | DNP |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Oshane Ximines | OLB | Quad | DNP |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | Shoulder | LP |
| Jon Feliciano | C | Groin | LP |
| Azeez Ojulari | LB | Calf | LP |
| Andrew Thomas | OT | Elbow | LP |
Giants: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Darrian Beavers | ILB | IR |
| D.J. Davidson | DL | IR |
| Tony Jefferson | S | IR |
| Collin Johnson | WR | IR |
| Shane Lemieux | G | IR |
| Marcus McKethan | OL | IR |
| Aaron Robinson | CB | IR |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | IR |
| Elerson Smith | OLB | IR |
| Rodarius Williams | CB | IR |
| Nick Gates | C | PUP |
| Matt Peart | T | PUP |
Giants Injury News
Jaguars: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Jamal Agnew | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Shaquill Griffin | CB | Back | DNP |
| Foley Fatukasi | DE | Quadricep | LP |
| DaVon Hamilton | NT | Foot | LP |
| Marvin Jones | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Foye Oluokun | OLB | Calf | LP |
Jaguars: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Ben Bartch | OL | IR |
| K’Lavon Chaisson | OLB | IR |
| Jordan Smith | OLB | IR |
Jaguars Injury News
Giants at Jaguars: Notable Trends
Giants Trends
- 2022 Giants: 5-1 ATS (60.5% ROI)
- QB Daniel Jones:'13-6 ATS (32.4% ROI) on road
- QB Daniel Jones:'21-13 ATS (18.9% ROI) as underdog
- QB Daniel Jones:'12-4 ATS (45.1% ROI) as road underdog
Jaguars Trends
- 2022 Jaguars: 2-4 ATS (26.2% ROI for faders)
- QB Trevor Lawrence: 7-16 ATS (32.7% ROI for faders)
Giants at Jaguars: Team Statistics
Giants Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.053 | 8 | -0.047 | 9 | 1 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 18 | 41.3% | 6 | -12 |
| Total DVOA | 5.5% | 13 | -2.1% | 10 | -3 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.092 | 11 | -0.03 | 9 | -2 |
| Dropback SR | 46.0% | 17 | 44.1% | 11 | -6 |
| Pass DVOA | 16.1% | 12 | 4.8% | 13 | 1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.5% | 31 | 4.5% | 30 | -1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.002 | 9 | -0.078 | 17 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 40.7% | 18 | 36.2% | 6 | -12 |
| Rush DVOA | 4.3% | 11 | -11.8% | 9 | -2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.37 | 17 | 4.00 | 5 | -12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 21 | 5.2 | 8 | -13 |
| Points per Game | 21.2 | 18 | 19 | 9 | -9 |
Jaguars Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.052 | 9 | 0.053 | 22 | 13 |
| Total SR | 47.3% | 6 | 45.1% | 20 | 14 |
| Total DVOA | 6.3% | 11 | 9.8% | 30 | 19 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.116 | 8 | 0.059 | 14 | 6 |
| Dropback SR | 51.1% | 4 | 46.0% | 17 | 13 |
| Pass DVOA | 25.1% | 8 | 12.0% | 20 | 12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.5% | 9 | 6.0% | 24 | 15 |
| Rush EPA | -0.037 | 15 | 0.043 | 29 | 14 |
| Rush SR | 42.1% | 12 | 43.8% | 24 | 12 |
| Rush DVOA | -7.7% | 17 | 6.6% | 28 | 11 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.86 | 30 | 5.05 | 30 | 0 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 11 | 5.8 | 23 | 12 |
| Points per Game | 23 | 15 | 18.8 | 7 | -8 |
Giants at Jaguars: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Daniel Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.099 | 11 |
| AY/A | 6.5 | 19 |
| QBR | 54.7 | 14 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.3 | 20 |
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -30.1
2022: Trevor Lawrence
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.095 | 12 |
| AY/A | 6.9 | 15 |
| QBR | 55 | 13 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.0 | 17 |
Career: Trevor Lawrence
- AY/A: 5.6
- QB Elo per Game: -42.9
Key Matchup: Giants RB Saquon Barkley vs. Jaguars Rush Defense
We all know what the Giants want to do in this game. They want to run the ball. They literally run more than they pass (52.0% rush rate), which is hard to do in today’s NFL — but I guess that’s what you do when you have Daniel Jones at quarterback and Saquon Barkley at running back.
Barkley leads the league with 119 carries, and we see the Barkley-heavy Giants backfield as having a significant edge over the Jaguars defensive line and linebacking unit.
| Rank | RBs | Opp Defense | DL Rank | LBs Rank | RB-DL Edge | RB-LB Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NYG | JAX | 13 | 16 | 11 | 14 |
As mediocre as the Giants are on offense — 43.8% success rate (No. 18), 5.1 yards per play (No. 21) — they’ve been good running the ball, ranking No. 9 in rush EPA per play (-0.002), whereas the Jaguars defense has been average against the run (-0.078 rush EPA, No. 17).
Barkley (shoulder), LT Andrew Thomas (elbow) and C Jon Feliciano (groin) are all dealing with injuries, but they practiced limitedly on Wednesday, so they should play this weekend.
I have these two teams as about even in my power ratings. And in 2022 the difference between Jones and Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has been marginal and maybe nonexistent.
- Daniel Jones: 0.099 EPA + CPOE (No. 11) | 54.7 QBR (No. 14)
- Trevor Lawrence: 0.095 EPA + CPOE (No. 12) | 55 QBR (No. 13)
And I don’t see the Jaguars as having a home-field advantage of three points.
So if the Giants — really Barkley — can run the ball effectively against the Jaguars, they have a good chance to cover.
Best Line: Giants +3 (-110, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Giants +2 (-104)
Personal Projection: Giants +1.25
Limit: Giants +2
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: NBC
Steelers at Dolphins: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Dolphins -7
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Moneyline: Dolphins -335, Steelers +270
Steelers at Dolphins: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Dolphins – 56% bets, 74% money
- Over/Under: Over – 32% bets, 56% money
- Moneyline: Steelers – 46% bets, 77% money
Steelers at Dolphins: Injuries
Steelers: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Larry Ogunjobi | DT | Knee | DNP |
| Steven Sims | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Mason Cole | OL | Foot, Ankle | LP |
| James Daniels | OL | Ankle | LP |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | Knee | LP |
| Myles Jack | LB | Ankle | LP |
| Cam Sutton | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Chris Wormley | DL | Ankle | LP |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | Concussion | FP |
| Kenny Pickett | QB | Concussion | FP |
| Levi Wallace | CB | Concussion | FP |
Steelers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Calvin Austin III | WR | IR |
| Karl Joseph | S | IR |
| Damontae Kazee | S | IR |
| DeMarvin Leal | DE | IR |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | IR |
| Anthony Miller | WR | IR |
| Carlins Platel | DB | IR |
| T.J. Watt | LB | IR |
Steelers Injury News
Dolphins: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Terron Armstead | OT | Toe | DNP |
| Keion Crossen | DB | Knee | DNP |
| Melvin Ingram | OLB | Not Injury Related – Vet Rest | DNP |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | DE | Back | DNP |
| Christian Wilkins | DE | Hand | DNP |
| Jerome Baker | ILB | Hip | LP |
| Xavien Howard | CB | Not Injury Related – Vet Rest | LP |
| Kader Kohou | CB | Oblique | LP |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | Knee | LP |
| Zach Sieler | DE | Hand | LP |
| Durham Smythe | TE | Hamstring | LP |
| Skylar Thompson | QB | R. Thumb | LP |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | Shoulder | LP |
| Elijah Campbell | DB | Foot | FP |
| Tanner Conner | TE | Knee | FP |
| Greg Little | OT | Achilles | FP |
Dolphins: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Cethan Carter | TE | IR |
| Trey Flowers | LB | IR |
| Austin Jackson | OL | IR |
| John Lovett | FB | IR |
| Nik Needham | CB | IR |
| Adam Shaheen | TE | IR |
| Trill Williams | CB | IR |
| Byron Jones | CB | PUP |
Dolphins Injury News
Steelers at Dolphins: Notable Trends
Steelers Trends
- 2022 Steelers: 2-3-1 ATS (12.4% ROI for faders)
- HC Mike Tomlin: 47-25-3 ATS (26.8% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 39-36 ML (34.9% ROI) as underdog
Dolphins Trends
- 2022 Dolphins: 3-3 ATS (-4.1% ROI)
- 2022 Dolphins: 3-0 ATS (91.8% ROI) in QB Tua Tagovailoa’s three full starts
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 10-3 ATS (47.3% ROI) at home
Steelers at Dolphins: Team Statistics
Steelers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.069 | 25 | 0.068 | 28 | 3 |
| Total SR | 42.5% | 22 | 46.6% | 26 | 4 |
| Total DVOA | -8.1% | 24 | 8.3% | 25 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.07 | 27 | 0.184 | 29 | 2 |
| Dropback SR | 43.5% | 22 | 51.7% | 29 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 8.1% | 20 | 23.4% | 31 | 11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.7% | 11 | 6.5% | 18 | 7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.068 | 22 | -0.139 | 6 | -16 |
| Rush SR | 40.5% | 19 | 37.6% | 9 | -10 |
| Rush DVOA | -21.4% | 31 | -13.4% | 7 | -24 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.10 | 26 | 3.78 | 4 | -22 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 29 | 5.9 | 25 | -4 |
| Points per Game | 16.2 | 30 | 25.8 | 27 | -3 |
Dolphins Offense vs. Steelers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.048 | 12 | 0.053 | 22 | 10 |
| Total SR | 46.2% | 11 | 44.8% | 19 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 12.7% | 6 | 0.5% | 15 | 9 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.111 | 9 | 0.077 | 16 | 7 |
| Dropback SR | 48.6% | 9 | 47.8% | 24 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 32.8% | 5 | 8.1% | 17 | 12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.4% | 19 | 6.1% | 23 | 4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.079 | 23 | 0.011 | 27 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 41.3% | 14 | 39.6% | 13 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | -4.6% | 15 | -10.1% | 10 | -5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.07 | 28 | 4.11 | 7 | -21 |
| Yards per Play | 6.1 | 5 | 5.7 | 20 | 15 |
| Points per Game | 21.8 | 17 | 24.3 | 23 | 6 |