Week 8 college football power ratings and game spreads

When teams have results that deviate from the expectation, the betting markets can be ripe for overreaction. We see a lot of that in Weeks 2-4 when the season is just getting going because there is a race to have the teams accurately rated and properly valued. However, there are going to be times later in the season when a win or a loss might get too much credit.

Week 8 could very well be one of those weeks.

Underdogs simply crushed it in Week 7, going 34-11 ATS with 15 outright upsets. There were some real surprises in that group, like Georgia Southern over James Madison, Michigan State over Wisconsin, Stanford over Notre Dame and Colorado over Cal. There were also some that altered the national landscape like Tennessee over Alabama, Kentucky over Mississippi State and Illinois over Minnesota. There were plenty of close calls, too, like Iowa State against Texas and Duke over North Carolina.

Betting on college football has been like tiptoeing around landmines for the last few weeks. Quarterback injuries seem to be more of an epidemic than ever. Head coaches have been fired and interims have had highs and lows. Players are planning for their futures by sitting out to maintain a year of eligibility. There have been a lot of extenuating circumstances in a lot of these games, not to mention all the totals movement we saw with Hurricane Ian and then this past week with wind in the Great Lakes region.

One thing that the transfer portal and college football free agency have done is spread the talent around the country. Players want to play in the biggest games under the brightest lights, but also realize that scouts and talent evaluators will find you if you stand out and sometimes that’s easier to do on a lesser team in a lesser conference.

There are only 25 teams with one or zero losses. There are only 10 Group of Five teams that are unbeaten in conference play and only 12 in the Power Five conferences. We joke about wondering “Is anybody actually good?”, but we might as well just get used to the increased parity in college football. It’s only going to grow from here.

Here are my Week 8 Power Ratings:

Here are my Week 8 PR Adjustments:

Up: UCF + 2, Navy + 3, FIU + 2, Toledo + 2, Buffalo + 2.5, Tennessee + 2, Duke + 2, Ball State + 2, Memphis + 1.5, Illinois + 2, Georgia Southern + 3, New Mexico State + 2, Colorado + 2, Fresno State + 1.5, Texas State + 3.5, UL Monroe + 2.5, TCU + 2, Ohio + 5.5, Michigan State + 1, Western Kentucky + 1.5, North Texas + 2.5, Hawaii + 3, Stanford + 2, Kentucky + 2.5, Oklahoma + 2.5, Northern Illinois + 1, LSU + 2, Washington State + 2, Wake Forest + 2

Down: Marshall -3, SMU -2, Kent State -3, UMass -2.5, Alabama -4, Mississippi State -4, NC State -8 (Leary OFY), Central Michigan -3.5, South Florida -2, Minnesota -3, Miami (OH) -5, Coastal Carolina -4, James Madison -2.5, BYU -2, New Mexico -2, Cal -3, USC -2, Troy -1.5, Oklahoma State -2, Western Michigan -3, Wisconsin -3.5, Middle Tennessee -2.5, Louisiana Tech -2,  Nevada -3, UNLV -3, Kansas -2, Liberty -3, Florida Atlantic -2.5, Florida -3, Boston College -2, Vanderbilt -3, Penn State -2.5

Injury: Maryland -6 (if Tagovailoa out), Arkansas -5 (if Jefferson out), Kansas -6 (if Daniels out), Marshall -2.5 (if Colombi out), Baylor -6 (if Shapen out), Minnesota -3 (if Morgan out), USF -3 (if Bohanon out)

A few notes on the biggest movers:

NC State (-8): Devin Leary is officially done for the year and the first data point for the Wolfpack with that knowledge was a 24-9 loss to Syracuse with 3.7 yards per play. This season has not gone the way Dave Doeren and his staff expected and now the team’s best player is no longer going to save the day.

Ohio (+ 5.5): The Bobcats actually played a little defense in the 33-14 win over Western Michigan by forcing six turnovers. The Broncos also only had 5.4 yards per play, which was a huge upgrade from what Ohio usually does on defense. The offense has been virtually unstoppable and that’s a big deal in a bad defensive conference.

Miami (OH) (-5): As one of the few teams that play defense in the MAC, I gave Miami the benefit of the doubt, but this is not a very good football team. The market was lower on them than I was and any loss to Bowling Green is a bad loss.

Alabama (-4): This is the big one. The Crimson Tide defense is nothing like what we’ve seen in the past. The wide receivers finally made some plays in support of Bryce Young, but that group isn’t on par with the standards set in Tuscaloosa. Young also took an absolute beating in that game while already dealing with a shoulder injury. Alabama’s talent still has to be respected, but this team is down a few notches from its predecessors.

Mississippi State (-4): Alabama’s opponent this week also took a dive and that’s Mississippi State. Maybe this one is a little harsh, but the Bulldogs were very bad against Kentucky and my initial line for Alabama/Mississippi State was quite a bit off-market, so I had to compensate. Maybe I should have trusted my original number of 16. We’ll find out on Saturday.

Coastal Carolina (-4): Reluctantly, the time has come to acknowledge that the Chanticleers just aren’t very good. Last season’s losses at the skill positions have really taken a toll and Grayson McCall hasn’t been good enough to overcome them. What concerns me more is that the defense has totally derailed. I was much higher than the market on Coastal coming into the season and now it was time to admit defeat.

Injuries: Note the injury ratings as well. Those decreases would be in addition to any that have already taken place once we get some more intel on the injury situations. Some of those teams are on byes this week.

Here are my Week 8 spreads based on my power ratings:

Date	Away	Home	My Line
10/19	Georgia State	App State	-11
10/20	Virginia	Georgia Tech	-4
	Troy	South Alabama	-1
10/21	Tulsa	Temple	+ 14
	UAB	Western Kentucky	PK
10/22	Kansas State	TCU	-3.5
	UL Monroe	Army	-5.5
	Duke	Miami (FL)	-11
	Texas A&M	South Carolina	+ 6.5
	Indiana	Rutgers	-0.5
	Iowa	Ohio State	-30
	Boston College	Wake Forest	-20
	Pitt	Louisville	+ 2.5
	UCF	ECU	+ 3.5
	BYU	Liberty	+ 4.5
	Houston	Navy	PK
	Toledo	Buffalo	+ 6
	Bowling Green	Central Michigan	-7.5
	Akron	Kent State	-24
	Western Michigan	Miami (OH)	-8.5
	Northern Illinois	Ohio	+ 1.5
	Marshall (w/ Colombi)	James Madison	-10.5
	Georgia Southern	Old Dominion	+ 4
	Syracuse	Clemson	-16.5
	Utah State	Wyoming	PK
	Hawaii	Colorado State	-10
	Fresno State	New Mexico	+ 12
	San Jose State	New Mexico State	+ 20
	Eastern Michigan	Ball State	+ 0.5
	UNLV	Notre Dame	-26
	Colorado	Oregon State	-28
	Rice	Louisiana Tech	+ 1.5
	Arizona State	Stanford	-5
	Washington	Cal	+ 9
	UCLA	Oregon	-4
	North Texas	UTSA	-11
	Texas	Oklahoma State	+ 3.5
	Mississippi State	Alabama	-20
	Ole Miss	LSU	-1
	Kansas	Baylor (w/ Shapen)	-9.5
	West Virginia	Texas Tech	-3
	Cincinnati	SMU	+ 3.5
	Memphis	Tulane	-7.5
	Vanderbilt	Missouri	-12
	Southern Miss	Texas State	+ 1
	Northwestern	Maryland (w/ Tagovailoa)	Read Full Article       By VSiN Related Post College Football College Football Expert Picks Week 4: Top CFB Predictions This Week Sportsbook Review College Football Utah at Oklahoma State odds, picks and predictions Sportsbook Wire College Football Memphis at Navy odds, picks and predictions Sportsbook Wire You missed MLB Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions Sportsbook Wire MLB New York Yankees at Oakland A’s odds, picks and predictions Sportsbook Wire College Football College Football Expert Picks Week 4: Top CFB Predictions This Week Sportsbook Review MLB San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions Sportsbook Wire