Welcome to Week 7 of the college football season.
Each week, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on select games.
We had a 6-3 showing in Week 6 and we’re looking to ride that momentum into Week 7. Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Wednesday night.
Season record: 28-32-1
Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines (-7, 51)
Wes Reynolds: FOX’s “Big Noon Kickoff” features two unbeaten, top-10 teams from the Big Ten as No. 10 Penn State comes to the “Big House” to take on No. 5 Michigan. The stakes are high as Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State are all in the Big Ten East, and only one of those three teams will reach the Big Ten championship game.
The road team has covered the last three in this series, including two years ago when an 0-5 Penn State team won at Michigan (27-17 as a 1-point underdog) and last year when the Wolverines returned the favor (Penn State led in the fourth quarter but Michigan won 21-17 as a 2-point favorite).
This year, both teams have feasted on lower competition as Michigan’s opponents have a combined record of 15-21 (42%) and Penn State’s opponents are just 12-18 (40%). However, Penn State has had to go on the road to both Purdue and Auburn.
Penn State has rediscovered its running game after ranking 114th nationally last season. The Nittany Lions rank 33rd this season with 192.6 rushing yards per game. They have also been effective defensively against the run, ranking fifth nationally. This is a game where Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is going to have to make a big play at some point in the passing game.
Michigan looks to be overvalued and Penn State has some good historical numbers to lean on. The Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six as underdogs against an undefeated conference opponent, and James Franklin is 37-18-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins.
Penn State should be fresh off a bye, and Michigan is 2-11 ATS against undefeated opponents under Jim Harbaugh, including 0-9 ATS in the last nine.
Pick: Penn State + 7
Minnesota Golden Gophers (-6.5, 39.5) at Illinois Fighting Illini
Adam Burke: We’ve got a really low total in Champaign and it may not be low enough, as these are two of the slowest, most methodical teams in college football.
Minnesota leads the nation in time of possession per game by nearly 2.5 minutes over Air Force. The Gophers have had the ball for 37:59 on average through five games. Illinois isn’t far behind, ranking seventh in that department at 33:58 through six games.