BetQL Staff NFL Picks For Commanders-Bears TNF
Find out which NFL bets we're targeting for Thursday Night Football
By BetQL – Oct 12, 2022, 4:36pm
Dan Karpuc: Darnell Mooney Over 42.5 Receiving Yards
I've had a profitable season identifying NFL player props, and last week Dallas Goedert easily crushed his 44.5-yard receiving prop against Arizona. I'm not touching either side or the total in this game. Instead, I'm tackling (haha, get it?) the player prop market once again and Darnell Mooney is sticking out as a fantastic option on Thursday night against the Commanders, who have allowed an average of 190.0 yards to opposing wide receivers, fourth-worst in the NFL.
Mooney has dominated the snaps at the wide receiver position this season for the Bears and was out there for 94% of his team's plays in Week 5, which tied his season high. While that hasn't translated to success (he's only caught 10 of 21 targets for 173 yards with no touchdowns in five games), he's accounted for 40.6% of his team's Air Yards with 350 (no other Bears WR has more than 151) and 24.7% of his team's targets.
This is a good spot for Justin Fields and Chicago to have some success in the passing game and Mooney is his clear top option downfield. In his last two games, Mooney has caught four passes for 94 yards (including a long of 56) and then two passes for 52 (with a long of 39), so there's going to be an opportunity for him to break out here, especially if the Bears can establish the run and get the play-action passing game working. I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that he not only crushes this receiving yards prop, but crosses the century mark in this matchup.