The New England Patriots (2-3) visit FirstEnergy Stadium to take on the Cleveland Browns (2-3) on Oct. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Browns are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Patriots vs. Browns Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Browns Prediction for Week 6
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Browns will win this Week 6 game with 57.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread this Week 6 with 56.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Browns, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kareem Hunt has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- David Njoku has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Chubb has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Chester Rogers has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Jacoby Brissett has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+3.55 Units / 23% ROI)
Patriots Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 92% ROI)
Browns Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Cleveland Browns have scored first in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 34% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 2-2 (-0.1 Units / -1.87% ROI).
- Patriots are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -16.39% ROI
- Patriots are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Patriots are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI
Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns have gone 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).
- Browns are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -34.81% ROI
- Browns are 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
- Browns are 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns
The Patriots are winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .334.
The Patriots are undefeated (5-0) when not committing any turnovers since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .740.
The Patriots are 1-3 (.250) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.
The Patriots are winless (0-4) when rushing at least 4 yards less than 5 times in a game since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .319.
Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Browns are winless (0-6) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .195.
The Browns are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .676.