The Buffalo Bills (4-1) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) on Oct. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Bills are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Bills vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 54 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction for Week 6
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 6 game with 64.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 6 with 61.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jamison Crowder has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- Dawson Knox has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.40 Units / 39% ROI)
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mecole Hardman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+4.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ronald Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Bills Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Chiefs Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+7.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 34.23% ROI).
- Bills are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 10.87% ROI
- Bills are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
- Bills are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 2-3 (-1.35 Units / -24.32% ROI).
- Chiefs are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 15.86% ROI
- Chiefs are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Bills are 10-5 (.667) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 251.4 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Bills are winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .334.
The Bills are winless (0-3) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .150.
The Bills are winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .236.