BetQL Staff NFL Picks For Raiders-Chiefs MNF
Find out which NFL bets we're targeting for Monday Night Football
By BetQL – Oct 10, 2022, 1:25pm
Dan Karpuc: Davante Adams Over 76.5 Receiving Yards
I love a number of player props in this game, but none of them compares to this one. Not only does BetQL list this as one of the most mispriced player props of the week, but the model simulated this game 10,000 times and Adams' average outcome was 120 receiving yards. That's a massive difference. So far, Adams has caught just 26 of a whopping 47 targets for 290 yards and three touchdowns. His receptions per game (10, 2, 5, 9) and corresponding yardage outputs (141, 12, 36, 101) have been all over the place, but his targets per contest (17, 7, 10, 13) have been pretty consistent; Carr is going to either get his guy the ball or fail trying. Kansas City has allowed averages of 15.5 receptions (third-most heading into Week 5) on 21.25 targets (10th-most) for 168.75 yards (12th-most) to wide receivers and since the Raiders will almost assuredly be playing with a negative game-script as clear road underdogs, Carr will likely be throwing the ball more than usual. Adams has attracted 34% of his team's targets and 40% of his team's air yards, both of which suggest that we should see some positive regression (up to his elite standard) against a K.C. defense that ranks 21st in Pass DVOA. Expect big things from Adams in primetime and I'm going to certainly be getting plus-money on him to get past the century mark as well.