Have you ever been watching a game you’ve bet on and can’t believe you missed the obvious handicapping angle.
That’s how I felt in the Tuley’s Takes home office on Friday as I watched the Game 1s of the MLB wild-card series. As it turned out, the teams that won the season series won all 4 games on Friday (Guardians, who won season series 4-2 over the Rays; Phillies, who were 4-3 vs. Cardinals; Mariners, who were 5-2 vs. the Blue Jays; and Padres, who were 4-2 vs. Mets). I looked at those season series records along with a ton of other things in my handicapping, but I ended up not being able to make a case for the Mariners as dogs at the Blue Jays or Padres at the Mets. I ended up pushing my posted Best Bets on the Cardinals 1st 5 + 100 vs.the Phillies and the Rays 1st 5 + 108 at Guardians as both games were scoreless after 5 innings and both went on to lose the games, so it was a losing day for yours truly. Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s (full-game) betting action and then look for more plays on Saturday in MLB as well as college football, plus rerun our 3,000-word Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 5 card. Friday’s RecapsMLB: Padres (+ 146) routed Mets 7-1 Friday night to wrap up Game 1 quadruple-header (game went Over betting total of 6 runs). Underdogs went 2-1 on the day with Phillies-Cardinals closing pick-'em. Guardians won as fave; Mariners won as dog. Road teams went 3-1. Over/Unders split 2-2.
More MLB: In the day games, Guardians (-123) beat Rays 2-1 (stayed Under 5.5), Phillies rallied to beat Cardinals 6-2 in game that closed pick-'em (went Over 6.5 after Phillies scored 6 runs in top of the 9th to win) and Mariners (+ 117) upset Blue Jays 4-0 (Under 7).
NHL: Predators beat Sharks 4-1 in #NHL regular-season opener on Friday night in Prague: ViewFromVegas is Predators closed as -195 neutral-site favorites (game stayed Under betting total of 5.5 goals); this “Global Series” has a 2nd game at 2:05 p.m. ET/11:05 a.m. PT Saturday .
CFB: Houston rallied to upset Memphis 33-32 as 1.5-point road underdog. Nebraska rallied to beat Rutgers 14-13 but did NOT cover as 3-point road fave. Our state had a rough night as Colorado State (+ 3.5) upset Nevada-Reno 17-14 and San Jose State (-6.5) routed Nevada-Las Vegas 40-7..
Saturday’s Takes
East Carolina + 3.5 at Tulane: I’ve cashed on both these teams this season, but feel this is a coin-flip game, so I’ll take the field goal and the hook, though I’m betting on ECU more because I’m expecting the Pirate to pull the outright upset.
More CFB: That’s mostly my reason for the other dogs I’m backing: North Carolina + 3.5% at Miami-Florida, Iowa + 4 at Illinois and Florida State + 3.5 at North Carolina State.
Cardinals 1st 5 + 104 vs. Phillies: Despite their 9th-inning collapse in Game 1, I’m going to back the Cardinals again with Milo Mikolas (12-13, 3.29 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) against Aaron Nola. I’m trusting the Cards to be better at the fundamentals like they usually are and force a Game 3. I am going to flip to the Mariners 1st 5 + 125 at the Blue Jays with Robbie Ray vs. Kevin Glausman.
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to be the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has continued to work very well so far this season as dogs are 35-25-3 ATS (58.3 percent) vs. my Vegas consensus closing lines with 1 game closing pick’-em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2). Last week, dogs went 8-7-1 ATS. Without further ado, let’s look at the NFL Week 5 card. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3.5 EVEN)Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests, though Broncos 67/33 in my rare SU pools that use the TNF game). u
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (-8.5) in LondonWe successfully faded the Packers at home last week, and see no reason not to fade them again on a neutral field in London. Besides, Aaron Rodgers and his receivers still look in sync after not working much together in the offseason and preseason. Rodgers somehow rallied the Packers to beat the Patriots 27-24 in OT but they were never close to covering as 9.5-point faves. The Packers’ biggest weakness continues to be its run defense, and Giant RB Saquon Barkley comes in as the league’s leader with 463 rushing yards. QB Daniel Jones (ankle) is expected to be able to play, though the focus should be on letting Barkley run wild against the Packers’ D.
Best Bet: Giants + 8.5 (pool play: Giants 67/33 in ATS contests, though Packers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
As I wrote in my preview for the VSiN’s Betting Guide, the Saints are playing the week after a London game without taking the usual bye week. It’s a small sample as just 5 of the 60 teams that have played in London have opted out of an early bye, but those teams are 2-3 SU and 2-2-1 ATS, so they’re not an automatic fade. Both teams are coming off a wild Week 4 games as the Seahawks outlasted the Lions in a 48-45 shootout while the Saints lost 28-25 to the Vikings in a crazy finish with a double-doink off the left upright and crossbar on Will Lutz’s FG attempt to try to send the game to overtime. The Seahawks are tempting again as a dog, but I’m not able to pull the trigger as the Saints’ defense is better than it has shown so far. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are ranked No. 31 in total defense, allowing 428 yards per game. The lean is to the Over 45.5, but check the status of New Orleans’ walking wounded, including Winston, RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)I already gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and bet the + 7, but there are some books dealing the Jaguars -7 with added juice, so you might want to wait to see if we can get the hook at + 7.5. However, the Westgate SuperBook in Vegas has the juice on the Texans + 7, so we’re getting mixed signals and be sure to grab the full 7 if they start to disappear. This is basically a fade against the Jaguars in the role of favorite, plus the Texans have been competitive despite their 0-3-1 SU start as they’re 2-1-1 ATS and had rallied to get within the number against the Chargers before losing the cover late. Note: a lot of people will be looking to tease the Jaguars down to virtually pick-’em, but I feel that’s a risky play with them so unfamiliar in the role of favorites (see Lions’ loss as chalk last week).
Best Bet: Texans + 7 or better (pool play: Texans 67/33 in ATS contest, though Jaguars still 60/40 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14)
Here’s another early bet I’ve already made on the Steelers + 14 as I think it’s been adjusted too high after being Bills -9.5 on the advance line last week and reopening -14 on Sunday afternoon. The Bills are certainly capable of blowing teams out, but they’ve played close games the last two weeks (loss at Dolphins, narrow win at Ravens). While the Steelers aren’t as good as those teams, parity still exists in the NFL and their defense should keep this relatively close (and I trust Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin to have a game plan to contain Buffalo QB Josh Allen) and rookie Kenny Pickett should be better prepared with a full week of reps with the first team. He already seems to have a good rapport with fellow rookie George Pickens.
Best Bet: Steelers + 14 (pool play: Steelers 75/25 in ATS contests, though Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).