Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season has arrived, and to say things are going great for the Pickswise NFL handicappers would be an understatement. This year, our experts boast a 42-22-1 record against the spread, which would equate to +32 units if you bet every single one of those at the advised stake! Now, we’ve included the best bet of the week from 4 of our sharpest NFL experts. So that’s 4 NFL Week 5 best bets, all in one place! Let’s dive in and check ’em out.
Read our NFL picks for EVERY Week 5 matchup — we went 13-2-1 on spreads last week!
Jared Smith: Buccaneers -8 over Falcons (-110)
Tom Brady owns the Falcons. Obviously, the 28-3 comeback in Super Bowl LI is the main event, but overall Brady is 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread in his career vs. Atlanta. The only non-cover was a game in 2020 when the Falcons jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead at home, only to allow Brady and the Bucs to storm back with a 31-10 second half to win by 4, failing to cover a 6-point spread. All of those trends are fun, but the core of his game also presents a matchup problem for Atlanta. For the most part, Tampa's defense has played well this season, 5th in EPA/play and 8th against the pass, but they haven't graded out well against the run, which is surprising considering that has historically been the strength of their unit.
The Bucs are getting healthier on offense, and Brady looked a little more in sync with a new cast of characters around him at receiver in garbage time against the Chiefs. Atlanta generates a league-worst 11% pressure rate, so Tom should have plenty of time to pick apart this bottom-feeder defense. Another factor to consider here is the number, which opened with the Bucs -11.5 earlier this summer. I like getting a full field goal discount through a secondary key number after two straight Tampa losses and a misleading Falcons win over the Browns.