The Louisville Cardinals (2-3) visit Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (2-3) on Oct. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Charlottesville.
Louisville are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Over/Under for Louisville vs. Virginia is 50.5 total points.
Bet now on Virginia vs Louisville & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
Louisville vs Virginia Prediction for Week 6
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 55.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 65.7% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisville and Virginia, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Louisville Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Louisville players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Malik Cunningham has hit the TD Passes Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Malik Cunningham has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.65 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jalen Mitchell has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan Watkins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Billy Kemp IV has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Brennan Armstrong has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Louisville Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+10.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Louisville have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Louisville have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisville has gone 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.25 Units / -22.94% ROI).
- Louisville are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -35.27% ROI
- Louisville are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Louisville are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia has gone 1-4 against the spread this college football season (-3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI).
- Virginia are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -31.75% ROI
- Virginia are 0-4 when betting the Over for -4.4 Units / -80% ROI
- Virginia are 4-0 when betting the Under for +4 Units / 72.73% ROI
Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
Louisville is 1-12 (.077) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2020 season– 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .447
Louisville is 2-9 (.182) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .436
Louisville is 3-13 (.188) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2020 season– tied for 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .465
Louisville is 2-11 (.154) when not forcing a fumble since the 2020 season– 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .448
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville
Virginia is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .382
Virginia is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .402
Matchup Notes for Louisville vs. Virginia
Virginia’s QBs has thrown for 6,047 passing yards in 17 games (355.7 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed 261.3 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.