In this article each week, I'll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing on Wednesday – I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
- DraftKings
- FanDuel
- BetMGM
- Caesars
- PointsBet
- FOX Bet
- UniBet
- BetRivers
Freedman's Week 5 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 5 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Packers are technically the home team.)
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| DEN | IND | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| GB | NYG | -8 | -7.75 | 0.25 |
| BUF | PIT | -14 | -13.75 | 0.25 |
| CLE | LAC | 2.5 | 2.25 | -0.25 |
| MIN | CHI | -7 | -7.75 | -0.75 |
| WAS | TEN | 2.5 | 0.25 | -2.25 |
| JAX | HOU | -7 | -6.25 | 0.75 |
| NO | SEA | -5.5 | -4.5 | 1 |
| TB | ATL | -9 | -9.5 | -0.5 |
| NYJ | MIA | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| NE | DET | -3 | -1 | 2 |
| CAR | SF | 6.5 | 4.5 | -2 |
| ARI | PHI | 5.5 | 2.75 | -2.75 |
| LAR | DAL | -5.5 | -6 | -0.5 |
| BAL | CIN | -3 | -2.25 | 0.75 |
| KC | LV | -7 | -9 | -2 |
Based on my current projections, I'm willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.
- Commanders +2.5 vs. Titans
- Lions +3 at Patriots
- Panthers +6.5 vs. 49ers
- Cardinals +5.5 vs. Eagles
- Chiefs -7 vs. Raiders
Freedman's Week 5 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FedExField
- TV: CBS
Titans at Commanders: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Titans -2.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Titans -135, Commanders +115
Titans at Commanders: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Titans – 78% bets, 89% money
- Over/Under: Under – 34% bets, 44% money
- Moneyline: Commanders – 16% bets, 39% money
Titans at Commanders: Injuries
Titans: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Ola Adeniyi | OLB | Neck | DNP |
| Treylon Burks | WR | Toe | DNP |
| Zach Cunningham | ILB | Elbow | DNP |
| Bud Dupree | OLB | Hip | DNP |
| Joe Jones | LB | Knee | DNP |
| Tory Carter | FB | Neck | LP |
| Amani Hooker | S | Concussion | LP |
| Ugo Amadi | SAF | Ankle | FP |
Titans: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Chance Campbell | LB | IR |
| Trenton Cannon | RB | IR |
| Da’Shawn Hand | DE | IR |
| Chris Jackson | DB | IR |
| Jamarco Jones | OL | IR |
| Harold Landry III | OLB | IR |
| Taylor Lewan | T | IR |
| Racey McMath | WR | IR |
| Elijah Molden | CB | IR |
| A.J. Moore Jr | S | IR |
| Monty Rice | LB | IR |
| Caleb Shudak | K | PUP |
Titans Injury News
Commanders: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Percy Butler | S | Quad | DNP |
| Sam Cosmi | OT | Finger | DNP |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Milo Eifler | LB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | Illness | DNP |
| Charles Leno Jr. | OT | Shoulder | LP |
| David Mayo | LB | Hamstring | LP |
| William Jackson | CB | Back | FP |
| Daniel Wise | DT | Ankle | FP |
Commanders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Willie Beavers | G | IR |
| Curtis Hodges | TE | IR |
| Phidarian Mathis | DT | IR |
| Chase Roullier | C | IR |
| Wes Schweitzer | G | IR |
| Brian Robinson | RB | NFI |
| Tyler Larsen | C | PUP |
| Chase Young | DE | PUP |
Commanders Injury News
Titans at Commanders: Notable Trends
Titans Trends
- HC Mike Vrabel:'15-21-1 ATS (12.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Mike Vrabel:'9-14 ATS (17.8% ROI for faders) following multiple wins in a row
Commanders Trends
- Home Underdogs: 82-47-7 ATS (22.3% ROI) with three-game losing streak
- Home Underdogs: 16-10-1 ATS (18.5% ROI) with 1-3 record in Week 5
Titans at Commanders: Team Statistics
Titans Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.033 | 19 | 0.044 | 20 | 1 |
| Total SR | 45.6% | 15 | 40.5% | 5 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | 2.0% | 14 | 8.2% | 24 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.076 | 12 | 0.202 | 28 | 16 |
| Dropback SR | 50.0% | 8 | 45.3% | 17 | 9 |
| Pass DVOA | 29.0% | 9 | 27.7% | 30 | 21 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.5% | 18 | 8.2% | 9 | -9 |
| Rush EPA | -0.169 | 26 | -0.222 | 4 | -22 |
| Rush SR | 40.0% | 17 | 32.3% | 1 | -16 |
| Rush DVOA | -14.6% | 22 | -21.5% | 6 | -16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.39 | 18 | 3.94 | 7 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 19 | 6 | 25 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 18.8 | 21 | 26.8 | 29 | 8 |
Commanders Offense vs. Titans Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.104 | 30 | 0.101 | 30 | 0 |
| Total SR | 37.8% | 30 | 43.0% | 14 | -16 |
| Total DVOA | -17.5% | 28 | 7.0% | 21 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.086 | 27 | 0.199 | 27 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 39.6% | 28 | 48.2% | 24 | -4 |
| Pass DVOA | -9.2% | 27 | 22.4% | 26 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.1% | 30 | 6.5% | 15 | -15 |
| Rush EPA | -0.147 | 25 | -0.090 | 14 | -11 |
| Rush SR | 33.3% | 31 | 33.0% | 3 | -28 |
| Rush DVOA | -23.2% | 27 | -19.1% | 8 | -19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.85 | 26 | 4.18 | 12 | -14 |
| Yards per Play | 4.6 | 32 | 6.3 | 30 | -2 |
| Points per Game | 18.3 | 25 | 25.3 | 25 | 0 |
Titans at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Ryan Tannehill
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.094 | 11 |
| AY/A | 7.4 | 13 |
| QBR | 47.8 | 18 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.4 | 19 |
Career: Ryan Tannehill
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -4.5
2022: Carson Wentz
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.01 | 28 |
| AY/A | 5.6 | 28 |
| QBR | 35.7 | 25 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.4 | 29 |
Career: Carson Wentz
- AY/A: 6.8
- QB Elo per Game: -5.9
Key Matchup: Commanders Defensive Line vs. Titans Offensive Line
Even without EDGE Chase Young (knee, PUP), the Commanders defense has opened the season No. 9 in adjusted sack rate (8.2%) and top-eight in every key rush efficiency metric.
- Rush EPA: -0.222 (No. 4)
- Rush SR: 32.3% (No. 1)
- Rush DVOA: -21.5% (No. 6)
- Adj. Line Yards: 3.94 (No. 7)
Compare that to the Titans offense, which is not even average in adjusted sack rate or any rushing efficiency metric.
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see the Commanders defensive line as having a significant edge over the Titans offensive line.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | WAS | TEN | 27 | 13 |
For the Titans, QB Carson Wentz could be under pressure for much of the game and RB Derrick Henry might struggle to find open running lanes.
In the preseason market, this number was Commanders -0.5, and my projection is still fairly close to that number. They shouldn’t be favored, but they also shouldn’t be dogs of almost a field goal.
Best Line: Commanders +2.5 (-109, Bet Rivers)
First Recommended: Commanders +3 (-115)
Personal Projection: Commanders +0.25
Limit: Commanders +2
Special Offer: Get 1 FREE year of BettingPros Premium access >>
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium
- TV:'FOX
Lions at Patriots: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Patriots -3
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Patriots -159, Lions +140
Lions at Patriots: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Patriots – 45% bets, 81% money
- Over/Under: Over – 73% bets, 76% money
- Moneyline: Patriots – 61% bets, 61% money
Lions at Patriots: Injuries
Lions: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Chris Board | LB | Knee | DNP |
| Evan Brown | C | Ankle | DNP |
| Quintez Cephus | WR | Foot | DNP |
| D.J. Chark | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| John Cominsky | DE | Wrist | DNP |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | Hip | DNP |
| Frank Ragnow | C | Foot | DNP |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | Shoulder/Ankle | DNP |
| Kayode Awosika | OT | Hamstring | LP |
| Taylor Decker | OT | Knee | LP |
| Jonah Jackson | G | Finger | LP |
| Matt Nelson | OT | Cal | LP |
| Austin Seibert | K | Right Groin | LP |
Lions: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tommy Kraemer | G | IR |
| Levi Onwuzurike | DL | IR |
| Halapoulivaati Vaitai | G | IR |
| Tracy Walker III | S | IR |
| Jameson Williams | WR | NFI |
| Jason Cabinda | FB | PUP |
| Jerry Jacobs | CB | PUP |
| Romeo Okwara | DL | PUP |
| Josh Paschal | DL | PUP |
Lions Injury News
Patriots: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Lawrence Guy | DE | Shoulder | DNP |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | Concussion | DNP |
| DaMarcus Mitchell | DE | Concussion | DNP |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | Ankle | DNP |
| Kyle Dugger | S | Knee | LP |
| Mac Jones | QB | Ankle | LP |
| Raekwon McMillan | MLB | Thumb | LP |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | Knee | LP |
| Jalen Mills | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Adrian Phillips | DB | Ribs | LP |
| Isaiah Wynn | OT | Hip | LP |
Patriots: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Yodny Cajuste | OL | IR |
| Ty Montgomery | WR | IR |
| Ronnie Perkins | LB | IR |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | IR |
| Kristian Wilkerson | WR | IR |
| Joejuan Williams | CB | IR |
| Quinn Nordin | K | NFI |
| Andrew Stueber | OL | NFI |
| Malcolm Perry | WR | Retired |
| James White | RB | Retired |
Patriots Injury News
Lions at Patriots: Notable Trends
Lions Trends
- HC Dan Campbell: 14-6 ATS (33.9% ROI) as underdog
- Road Underdogs: 179-145-10 ATS (6.4% ROI) off loss (since 2018, when sports betting was legalized)
Patriots Trends
- Home Favorites: 140-173-9 ATS (7.7% ROI for faders) when having a losing record the year after making postseason
- Home Favorites: 421-471-50 ATS (4.6% ROI for faders) with spread of no more than -3
Lions at Patriots: Team Statistics
Lions Offense vs. Patriots Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.111 | 8 | 0.048 | 22 | 14 |
| Total SR | 42.0% | 21 | 46.9% | 26 | 5 |
| Total DVOA | 15.0% | 7 | 4.3% | 19 | 12 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.119 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 43.8% | 21 | 43.4% | 12 | -9 |
| Pass DVOA | 24.0% | 12 | -2.7% | 10 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 3.4% | 2 | 8.4% | 7 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | 0.098 | 2 | 0.119 | 29 | 27 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 18 | 52.0% | 31 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | 12.5% | 4 | 13.5% | 31 | 27 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.10 | 4 | 4.64 | 21 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 6.5 | 1 | 5.6 | 16 | 15 |
| Points per Game | 35 | 1 | 24.5 | 22 | 21 |
Patriots Offense vs. Lions Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.014 | 16 | 0.209 | 32 | 16 |
| Total SR | 48.1% | 6 | 50.9% | 31 | 25 |
| Total DVOA | -0.5% | 18 | 18.8% | 32 | 14 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.092 | 29 | 0.234 | 30 | 1 |
| Dropback SR | 46.1% | 17 | 51.1% | 28 | 11 |
| Pass DVOA | -11.1% | 28 | 18.9% | 24 | -4 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.2% | 23 | 6.0% | 21 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | 0.095 | 3 | 0.163 | 32 | 29 |
| Rush SR | 51.0% | 1 | 50.5% | 28 | 27 |
| Rush DVOA | 23.6% | 1 | 18.5% | 32 | 31 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.22 | 1 | 4.75 | 24 | 23 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 11 | 6.5 | 31 | 20 |
| Points per Game | 18.5 | 23 | 35.3 | 32 | 9 |
Lions at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Jared Goff
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.086 | 13 |
| AY/A | 8 | 6 |
| QBR | 67.1 | 8 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.2 | 9 |
Career: Jared Goff
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 6.0
2022: Brian Hoyer
As a backup, QB Brian Hoyer (concussion) hasn’t played enough snaps to accumulate meaningful statistics this year. Additionally, he’s uncertain to play, although I think he’s likelier to suit up than starter Mac Jones (ankle), whose Week 3 injury was expected to sideline him for multiple weeks.
Career: Brian Hoyer
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -50.2
Key Matchup: Lions Rush Offense vs. Patriots Rush Defense
Even without No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle), I expect the Lions to run successfully against the Patriots defense, which ranks No. 31 in both rush DVOA (13.5%) and rush SR (52.0%).
I’m not worried about the Wednesday DNP for C Frank Ragnow (foot), who last week was DNP for Wednesday, LP for Thursday and FP on Friday before not even showing up on the final injury report. He’s playing on Sunday.
And LG Jonah Jackson (finger) is trending in the right direction with his Wednesday LP after not practicing at all last week. He might actually suit up.
On the other side, the Patriots last week were without DT Lawrence Guy (shoulder), one of their main interior run stoppers. After suffering his injury in Week 3, he didn’t practice at all in Week 4, and his Wednesday DNP this week is a negative sign for his Week 5 availability.
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Lions offensive line has a massive edge over the Patriots defensive line.
| Rank | Offensive Line | Opp DL | DL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | DET | NE | 26 | 23 |
I expect the Lions to push the Patriots around and control the ball via the ground attack, which should keep this game close.
This line was Lions +1 in the lookahead market, and that’s where I have it projected now. Maybe the market believes that Patriots QB Mac Jones has a real shot to play this week, but I’m skeptical.
Best Line: Lions +3.5 (-115, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Lions +3 (-115)
Personal Projection: Lions +1
Limit: Lions +3
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- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: CBS
49ers at Panthers: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: 49ers -6.5
- Over/Under: 39
- Moneyline: 49ers -275, Panthers +235
49ers at Panthers: Betting Percentages
- Spread: 49ers – 75% bets, 76% money
- Over/Under: Under – 50% bets, 71% money
- Moneyline: Panthers – 18% bets, 38% money
49ers at Panthers: Injuries
49ers: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Trent Williams | OT | Ankle | DNP |
| Colton McKivitz | OT | Knee | DNP |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | RB | Ankle | DNP |
| Tyler Kroft | TE | Knee | DNP |
| Arik Armstead | DT | Foot, Ankle | DNP |
| Javon Kinlaw | DT | Knee | DNP |
| Tarvarius Moore | DB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Nick Bosa | DE | Rest | DNP |
| Ross Dwelley | TE | Rib | LP |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | Ankle | LP |
49ers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | LB | IR |
| Maurice Hurst | DL | IR |
| Trey Lance | QB | IR |
| Jordan Matthews | TE | IR |
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | IR |
| Curtis Robinson | LB | IR |
| Jimmie Ward | DB | IR |
| Jordan Willis | DL | IR |
| Kalia Davis | DL | NFI |
| Jason Verrett | CB | PUP |
49ers Injury News
Panthers: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | Rest | DNP |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Stantley Thomas-Oliver | CB | Thigh | DNP |
| Xavier Woods | S | Hamstring | DNP |
| Marquis Haynes | DE | Knee | LP |
| Frankie Luvu | OLB | Shoulder | LP |
| Shaq Thompson | OLB | Knee | LP |
| Stephen Sullivan | TE | Back | FP |
Panthers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Jeremy Chinn | S | IR |
| Matt Corral | QB | IR |
| Sam Darnold | QB | IR |
| Zane Gonzalez | K | IR |
| Andre Roberts | WR | IR |
| Bravvion Roy | DT | IR |
| Julian Stanford | LB | IR |
Panthers Injury News
49ers at Panthers: Notable Trends
49ers Trends
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 16-26-1 ATS (18.8% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 19-24 ML (25.8% ROI for faders) as favorite
Panthers Trends
- QB Baker Mayfield: 8-4 ATS (29.4% ROI) as underdog off loss
- Underdogs: 33-24-2 ATS (12.4% ROI) when playing third consecutive home game
49ers at Panthers: Team Statistics
49ers Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.041 | 20 | -0.05 | 10 | -10 |
| Total SR | 39.8% | 27 | 41.4% | 7 | -20 |
| Total DVOA | -7.4% | 21 | -0.9% | 12 | -9 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.006 | 18 | 0.022 | 12 | -6 |
| Dropback SR | 41.4% | 25 | 42.4% | 9 | -16 |
| Pass DVOA | 12.0% | 16 | 10.0% | 19 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.3% | 15 | 3.9% | 31 | 16 |
| Rush EPA | -0.090 | 20 | -0.154 | 9 | -11 |
| Rush SR | 38.2% | 24 | 39.8% | 15 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | -16.6% | 24 | -14.1% | 10 | -14 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.09 | 21 | 4.46 | 16 | -5 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 14 | 5 | 8 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 17.8 | 27 | 21.3 | 13 | -14 |
Panthers Offense vs. 49ers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.147 | 32 | -0.177 | 1 | -31 |
| Total SR | 37.6% | 31 | 37.1% | 1 | -30 |
| Total DVOA | -22.7% | 31 | -29.5% | 1 | -30 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.188 | 32 | -0.184 | 3 | -29 |
| Dropback SR | 33.8% | 32 | 39.6% | 2 | -30 |
| Pass DVOA | -31.3% | 31 | -26.7% | 4 | -27 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.3% | 28 | 10.0% | 3 | -25 |
| Rush EPA | -0.073 | 18 | -0.165 | 8 | -10 |
| Rush SR | 44.3% | 11 | 32.6% | 2 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | -4.4% | 16 | -33.3% | 1 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.73 | 8 | 3.32 | 1 | -7 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 27 | 3.8 | 1 | -26 |
| Points per Game | 19.5 | 17 | 11.5 | 1 | -16 |
49ers at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Jimmy Garoppolo
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.07 | 18 |
| AY/A | 8 | 6 |
| QBR | 33.2 | 27 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.5 | 21 |
Career: Jimmy Garoppolo
- AY/A: 8.1
- QB Elo per Game: -7.6
2022: Baker Mayfield
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | -0.048 | 32 |
| AY/A | 5.9 | 24 |
| QBR | 15.3 | 32 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.8 | 35 |
Career: Baker Mayfield
- AY/A: 6.9
- QB Elo per Game: -40.3
Key Matchup: Panthers Rush Defense vs. 49ers Rush Offense
The Panthers are an easy team to overlook because of the collective incompetence of HC Matt Rhule, OC Ben McAdoo and QB Baker Mayfield, but they’re actually good on defense.
They’re top-12 against both the pass and the run.
- Pass EPA: 0.022 (No. 12)
- Rush EPA: -0.154 (No. 9)
Their run defense especially should help them keep this contest close, as the 49ers offense is No. 6 in rush rate (51.7%) and heavily predicated on the run game, which they haven’t been able to do well, ranking no better than No. 20 in any rushing efficiency metric.
- Rush EPA: -0.090 (No. 20)
- Rush SR: 38.2% (No. 24)
- Rush DVOA: -16.6% (No. 24)
- Adj. Line Yards: 4.09 (No. 21)
The 49ers running game should be especially hampered by their injuries. Not only are they without No. 1 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR), backup RB Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle) and running QB Trey Lance (leg), but they are also highly likely to be without starting LT Trent Williams (ankle) and backup LT Colton McKivitz (knee).
This number was Panthers +3 in the lookahead market just a week ago. Not enough has changed from then to now to justify the line movement we’ve seen.
Best Line: Panthers +6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Panthers +6.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Panthers +4.5
Limit: Panthers +6
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium
- TV:'FOX
Eagles at Cardinals: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Eagles -5.5
- Over/Under: 49
- Moneyline: Eagles -230, Cardinals +195
Eagles at Cardinals: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Eagles – 50% bets, 76% money
- Over/Under: Over – 71% bets, 71% money
- Moneyline: Cardinals – 56% bets, 85% money
Eagles at Cardinals: Injuries
Eagles: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Jake Elliott | K | Right Ankle | DNP |
| Kyron Johnson | LB | Concussion | DNP |
| Patrick Johnson | LB | Concussion | DNP |
| Avonte Maddox | CB | Ankle | DNP |
| Jordan Mailata | OT | Shoulder | DNP |
| Boston Scott | RB | Rib | LP |
| Isaac Seumalo | G | Ankle | LP |
| Darius Slay | CB | Forearm | FP |
Eagles: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Derek Barnett | DE | IR |
| Andre Dillard | T | IR |
| Jaeden Graham | TE | IR |
| Greg Ward | WR | IR |
| Tyree Jackson | TE | PUP |
| Brett Toth | T/G | PUP |
Eagles Injury News
Cardinals: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Kelvin Beachum | OT | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Marquise Brown | WR | Foot | DNP |
| Zach Ertz | TE | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Max Garcia | G | Toe | DNP |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP |
| Rashard Lawrence | NT | Hand | DNP |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | DNP |
| Justin Pugh | G | Elbow | DNP |
| Nick Vigil | OLB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Maxx Williams | TE | Knee | DNP |
| Zaven Collins | ILB | Shoulder | LP |
| A.J. Green | WR | Knee | LP |
| D.J. Humphries | OT | Hamstring | LP |
| Zeke Turner | LB | Ankle | LP |
| J.J. Watt | DE | Calf | LP |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tae Daley | S | IR |
| Cody Ford | OL | IR |
| Marquis Hayes | OL | IR |
| Joshua Miles | OL | IR |
| Charles Washington | S | IR |
| Antonio Hamilton | CB | IR |
| Colt McCoy | QB | IR |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | IR |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | Suspended |
Cardinals Injury News
Eagles at Cardinals: Notable Trends
Cardinals Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury:'20-9-2 ATS (32.0% ROI) as underdog
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 16-14-1 ML (43.6% ROI) as underdog
Eagles at Cardinals: Team Statistics
Eagles Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.12 | 5 | 0.047 | 21 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.1% | 13 | 48.1% | 29 | 16 |
| Total DVOA | 17.9% | 4 | 11.3% | 29 | 25 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.198 | 4 | 0.19 | 26 | 22 |
| Dropback SR | 46.3% | 16 | 52.6% | 31 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 39.9% | 4 | 24.1% | 28 | 24 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.1% | 20 | 3.1% | 32 | 12 |
| Rush EPA | 0.025 | 6 | -0.226 | 3 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 45.8% | 8 | 39.5% | 13 | 5 |
| Rush DVOA | 7.3% | 6 | -13.9% | 11 | 5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.44 | 16 | 4.56 | 18 | 2 |
| Yards per Play | 6.1 | 5 | 6.1 | 27 | 22 |
| Points per Game | 28.8 | 4 | 25.8 | 28 | 24 |
Cardinals Offense vs. Eagles Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.011 | 15 | -0.153 | 2 | -13 |
| Total SR | 43.5% | 19 | 42.9% | 13 | -6 |
| Total DVOA | -8.5% | 22 | -24.8% | 3 | -19 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.014 | 20 | -0.204 | 1 | -19 |
| Dropback SR | 42.2% | 22 | 41.0% | 3 | -19 |
| Pass DVOA | -6.9% | 25 | -36.8% | 2 | -23 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.5% | 9 | 10.1% | 2 | -7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.004 | 11 | -0.028 | 22 | 11 |
| Rush SR | 46.4% | 7 | 47.3% | 26 | 19 |
| Rush DVOA | -1.4% | 14 | -1.0% | 23 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.65 | 12 | 4.57 | 19 | 7 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 28 | 4.5 | 3 | -25 |
| Points per Game | 22 | 14 | 17.8 | 9 | -5 |
Eagles at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Jalen Hurts
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.133 | 6 |
| AY/A | 9 | 2 |
| QBR | 60.7 | 10 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.6 | 8 |
Career: Jalen Hurts
- AY/A: 7.4
- QB Elo per Game: 46.9
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.034 | 25 |
| AY/A | 5.8 | 25 |
| QBR | 48.4 | 17 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.0 | 7 |
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: 65.7
Key Matchup: Cardinals Rush Offense vs. Eagles Rush Defense
The Cardinals have been something of a joke under HC Kliff Kingsbury with their “horizontal raid” passing attack — but they’ve also always been able to run the ball well, given that QB Kyler Murray is a strong scrambler and the offense forces defenses to spread out.
And on defense the Eagles have continued to struggle against the run despite the offseason additions of DT Jordan Davis (draft), EDGE Haason Reddick (free agency) and LBs Kyzir White (free agency) and Nakobe Dean (draft).
This year the Cardinals offense has outperformed the Eagles defense in every key rush efficiency metric.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.004 | 11 | -0.028 | 22 | 11 |
| Rush SR | 46.4% | 7 | 47.3% | 26 | 19 |
| Rush DVOA | -1.4% | 14 | -1.0% | 23 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.65 | 12 | 4.57 | 19 | 7 |
If a home team can run the ball with success, it has a good chance to cover, whether it’s a favorite or an underdog.
In the offseason market, this line was Cardinals -2.5. They have underperformed expectations to open the year, and the Eagles have outperformed, but not enough for this line to move eight points in just four games.
Best Line: Cardinals +5.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Cardinals +6 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals +2.75
Limit: Cardinals +5
- Kickoff: Monday, Oct. 10, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Raiders at Chiefs: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Chiefs -7
- Over/Under: 51
- Moneyline: Chiefs -330, Raiders +275
Raiders at Chiefs: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Chiefs – 79% bets, 81% money
- Over/Under: Over – 74% bets, 94% money
- Moneyline: Chiefs – 53% bets, 94% money
Raiders at Chiefs: Injuries
Raiders: Week 5 Injury Report
No injury report as of writing.
Raiders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Anthony Averett | CB | IR |
| Jordan Jenkins | DE | IR |
| Micah Kiser | LB | IR |
| Sincere McCormick | RB | IR |
| Brandon Parker | T | IR |
| DJ Turner | WR | IR |
Raiders Injury News
Chiefs: Week 5 Injury Report
No injury report as of writing.
Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Blake Bell | TE | IR |
| Trent McDuffie | CB | IR |
| Justyn Ross | WR | IR |
| Lucas Niang | OL | PUP |
| Jerrion Ealy | WR/RB | Suspended |
| Willie Gay | LB | Suspended |
Chiefs Injury News
Raiders at Chiefs: Notable Trends