The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (3-1) on Oct. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Orchard Park.
The Bills are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).
The Steelers vs. Bills Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
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Steelers vs. Bills Prediction for Week 5
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 5 game with 80.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread this Week 5 with 51.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Steelers and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Najee Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- Mitchell Trubisky has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Diontae Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 18 games (+1.35 Units / 7% ROI)
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Devin Singletary has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Zack Moss has hit the Carries Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Zack Moss has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Steelers Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+7.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)
Bills Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers have gone 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).
- Steelers are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -20.65% ROI
- Steelers are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Steelers are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 20.22% ROI).
- Bills are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 10.64% ROI
- Bills are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Bills are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Steelers are undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run defenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .433.
The Steelers were undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run defenses last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .429.
The Steelers are 2-8-1 (.182) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2021 season — eighth-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 26 passes since the 2021 season — tied for second-most in NFL.
The Steelers were 6-1 (.857) vs top 10 run offenses last season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .459.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bills are 10-1 (.909) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Steelers have allowed an average of 144.2 rushing yards per game since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL.
The Bills are winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .339.