Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule.
For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to be the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has continued to work very well so far this season as dogs are 35-25-3 ATS (58.3 percent) vs. my Vegas consensus closing lines with 1 game closing pick’-em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2). Last week, dogs went 8-7-1 ATS. Personally, I went 2-0 ATS with my two top plays – Titans + 3.5 at Colts and Patriots + 9.5 that I gave out on my regular spot at 12:15 a.m. ET/9 p.m. PT Sunday night on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and in these columns all week. Unfortunately, my second tier of plays didn’t fare as well as I went 2-3 ATS in the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest with my individual entries, though I did go 3-2 ATS with a group entry (ViewFromVegas-2) that is off to a nice start at 13-7 in Circa Sports Million. Without further ado, let’s look at the NFL Week 5 card. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. And, after we’re done, we’ll end the column with our regularly scheduled recaps of Tuesday night’s betting action and some plays for Wednesday as the MLB regular season draws to a close.Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3.5 EVEN)
The Thursday nighter looked like a much better matchup before the season started. The Broncos are off to a 2-2 start in Russell Wilson’s first season in Denver and the offense is ranked No. 21 at just 335.8 yards per game. Wilson was listed as questionable, but he insists he’s going to play. It’s tempting to take the Colts + 3.5, but they’re off to an even more disappointing start at 1-2-1, including a tie at the Texans in Week 1. Surprisingly, their only win so far was against the Chiefs, the best team they’ve faced, so the potential is still there. I was thinking the Under is the play (especially as both teams rank in the Top 6 in total defense), but the oddsmakers have the total relatively low at 43 points. Besides, with the Broncos losing top RB Javonte Williams for the season and Indy RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) in a walking boot earlier this week, both teams might be looking to air it out more..
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests, though Broncos 67/33 in my rare SU pools that use the TNF game).
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (-8.5) in London
We successfully faded the Packers at home last week, and see no reason not to fade them again on a neutral field in London. Besides, Aaron Rodgers and his receivers still look in sync after not working much together in the offseason and preseason. Rodgers somehow rallied the Packers to beat the Patriots 27-24 in OT but they were never close to covering as 9.5-point faves. The Packers’ biggest weakness continues to be its run defense, and Giant RB Saquon Barkley comes in as the league’s leader with 463 rushing yards. QB Daniel Jones (ankle) is expected to be able to play, though the focus should be on letting Barkley run wild against the Packers’ D.
Best Bet: Giants + 8.5 (pool play: Giants 67/33 in ATS contests, though Packers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
As I wrote in my preview for the VSiN’s Betting Guide, the Saints are playing the week after a London game without taking the usual bye week. It’s a small sample as just 5 of the 60 teams that have played in London have opted out of an early bye, but those teams are 2-3 SU and 2-2-1 ATS, so they’re not an automatic fade. Both teams are coming off a wild Week 4 games as the Seahawks outlasted the Lions in a 48-45 shootout while the Saints lost 28-25 to the Vikings in a crazy finish with a double-doink off the left upright and crossbar on Will Lutz’s FG attempt to try to send the game to overtime. The Seahawks are tempting again as a dog, but I’m not able to pull the trigger as the Saints’ defense is better than it has shown so far. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are ranked No. 31 in total defense, allowing 428 yards per game. The lean is to the Over 45.5, but check the status of New Orleans’ walking wounded, including Winston, RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
I already gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and bet the + 7, but there are some books dealing the Jaguars -7 with added juice, so you might want to wait to see if we can get the hook at + 7.5. However, the Westgate SuperBook in Vegas has the juice on the Texans + 7, so we’re getting mixed signals and be sure to grab the full 7 if they start to disappear. This is basically a fade against the Jaguars in the role of favorite, plus the Texans have been competitive despite their 0-3-1 SU start as they’re 2-1-1 ATS and had rallied to get within the number against the Chargers before losing the cover late. Note: a lot of people will be looking to tease the Jaguars down to virtually pick-’em, but I feel that’s a risky play with them so unfamiliar in the role of favorites (see Lions’ loss as chalk last week).
Best Bet: Texans + 7 or better (pool play: Texans 67/33 in ATS contest, though Jaguars still 60/40 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14)
Here’s another early bet I’ve already made on the Steelers + 14 as I think it’s been adjusted too high after being Bills -9.5 on the advance line last week and reopening -14 on Sunday afternoon. The Bills are certainly capable of blowing teams out, but they’ve played close games the last two weeks (loss at Dolphins, narrow win at Ravens). While the Steelers aren’t as good as those teams, parity still exists in the NFL and their defense should keep this relatively close (and I trust Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin to have a game plan to contain Buffalo QB Josh Allen) and rookie Kenny Pickett should be better prepared with a full week of reps with the first team. He already seems to have a good rapport with fellow rookie George Pickens.
Best Bet: Steelers + 14 (pool play: Steelers 75/25 in ATS contests, though Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9)
The Bucs are coming off back-to-back losses to the Packers and Chiefs, so many people are expecting them to take out their frustrations on the Falcons. However, the Falcons have been far more competitive than anyone expected as they’re the lone 4-0 ATS team so far this season with covers in SU losses to the Saints and Rams and then minor upsets as 1-point dogs the past two weeks vs. the Seahawks and Browns. Marcus Mariota is spreading the ball around to rookie WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts. RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson is out with an injured knee but the combo of Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley (both popular fantasy pickups this week) filled in just fine.
Best Bet: Falcons + 9 (pool play: Falcons 67/33 in ATS contests, though still Bucs 70/30 in SU pools).
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
Division dogs of a touchdown or greater are usually in my wheelhouse, but we can’t back the Bears here. They’re not as good as their 2-2 SU record (1-2-1 ATS) would indicate as they’re No. 31 in scoring offense. Their two wins were aided by sloppy conditions in their 19-10 win vs. the 49ers in Week 1 and then beating the lowly Texans 23-20 in Week 3. They’re taking a step up in class here and I don’t expect Justin Fields and the Bears offense to keep up with Kirk Cousins and the Vikes. In fact, this is a good spot to go over our teaser portfolio for Week 5. In Sunday’s early games, I love a 2-team, 6-point teaser with the Vikings -1/Lions + 9 as the LIons are back in their more comfortable role as underdogs..
Best Bet: Vikings -1 in 2-team, 6-point teaser with Lions + 9 at Patriots (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Washington Commanders
After a disappointing 0-2 start, the Titans beat the Raiders and Colts the last two weeks to move into a first-place tie with the Jaguars atop the AFC South at 2-2 (Titans also 2-2 ATS). The 24-17 win at Indianapolis was the Titans’ most complete performance to date with Derrick Henry rushing for 114 yards and the defense holding an opponent below 20 points for the first time this season. Ryan Tannehill only threw for 137 yards, but he was an efficient 17-for-21 with 2 TDs and, more importantly, zero interceptions as the Titans won the turnover battle 3-0. Washington ranks a mediocre No. 23 in both total offense and total defense. This game was pick-’em on the advance line last week and “reopened” at Titans -1 on Sunday and is up to -2.5 at most books. I would normally look to tease the underdog up over a TD, but – if I was forced to lay the points with one favorite this weekend, it would be the Titans -2.5.