The Houston Texans (0-3) visit TIAA Bank Field to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) on Oct. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -7 (-115).
The Texans vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
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Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction for Week 5
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Jaguars will win this Week 5 game with 67.5% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread this Week 5 with 60.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Texans and Jaguars, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Davis Mills has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Davis Mills has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Davis Mills has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Tyler Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- Rex Burkhead has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- Zay Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Christian Kirk has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Trevor Lawrence has hit the Completions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Trevor Lawrence has hit the TD Passes Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 13% ROI)
Texans Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+10.70 Units / 86% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 45% ROI)
Jaguars Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+12.05 Units / 140% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored first in 6 of their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 99% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+6.95 Units / 139% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 34% ROI)
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 20.22% ROI).
- Texans are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -75% ROI
- Texans are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Texans are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI
Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars have gone 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Jaguars are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 42.5% ROI
- Jaguars are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
- Jaguars are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Texans are winless (0-5-1) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.
The Texans are 1-14-1 (.062) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .423.
The Texans are winless (0-7-1) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .377.
The Texans are 2-13-1 (.125) when making less than 7 explosive plays since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Jaguars are winless (0-12) when intercepting no passes since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .343.