The Indianapolis Colts (1-2) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (2-2) on Oct. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Denver for Thursday Night Football.
The Broncos are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Colts vs. Broncos Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Colts vs. Broncos Prediction for Week 5
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this Week 5 game with 57.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread this Week 5 with 54.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Colts and Broncos, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Matt Ryan has hit the TD Passes Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Matt Ryan has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Michael Pittman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 60% ROI)
Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the Completions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tim Patrick has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the Passing Yards Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+3.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Broncos vs Colts
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Mo Alie-Cox | 18.5 -115 | 18.5 -115 |
| Ashton Dulin | 14.5 -110 | 14.5 -115 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 50.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 |
| Alec Pierce | 34.5 -110 | 34.5 -115 |
| Parris Campbell | 21.5 -115 | 21.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Broncos vs Colts
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 1.5 -125 | 1.5 -105 |
Colts Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Under in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 20% ROI)
Broncos Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have scored last in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts have gone 1-3 (-2.25 Units / -51.72% ROI).
- Colts are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -22.5% ROI
- Colts are 0-4 when betting the Over for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
- Colts are 4-0 when betting the Under for +4 Units / ROI
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos have gone 1-3 (-2.2 Units / -51.16% ROI).
- Broncos are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -17.86% ROI
- Broncos are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.35 Units / -52.81% ROI
- Broncos are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.68% ROI
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Colts are 1-10 (.091) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .273.
The Colts were 5-1 (.833) vs bottom 10 run defenses last season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .635.
The Colts are 3-5-1 (.333) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.
The Colts are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .675.