The Atlanta Falcons (2-2) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) on Oct. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Tampa.
The Buccaneers are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).
The Falcons vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction for Week 5
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this Week 5 game with 79.8% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread this Week 5 with 55.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Falcons and Buccaneers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Anthony Firkser has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games (+7.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan Edwards has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Olamide Zaccheaus has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mike Evans has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.95 Units / 66% ROI)
- Mike Evans has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- Cole Beasley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Leonard Fournette has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Cole Beasley has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 71% ROI)
Falcons Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+4.85 Units / 24% ROI)
Buccaneers Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 69% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 4-0 (+4 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Falcons are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Falcons are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
- Falcons are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / ROI
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers have gone 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.6% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -10.28% ROI
- Buccaneers are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Buccaneers are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons are winless (0-3) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .635.
The Falcons were 2-6 (.250) vs top 10 defenses last season — tied for 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.
The Falcons are winless (0-1) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .491.
The Falcons are 2-7 (.222) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .450.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers are 14-2 (.875) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — second-best in NFL. The Falcons have averaged just 1.2 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers are 15-3 (.833) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — second-best in NFL. The Falcons have turned the ball over 35 times since the 2021 season — tied for third-most in NFL.