The Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) on Oct. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Kansas City for Monday Night Football.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -7 (-115).
The Raiders vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 51 total points for the game.
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Raiders vs. Chiefs Prediction for Week 5
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 5 game with 71.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread this Week 5 with 54.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Raiders and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Raiders Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Jacobs has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Derek Carr has hit the Interceptions Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Josh Jacobs has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Brandon Bolden has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 away games (+4.05 Units / 91% ROI)
- Darren Waller has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.05 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Mecole Hardman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
Raiders Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have scored last in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Chiefs Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 15 of their last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 13% ROI)
Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders have gone 1-3 (-2.3 Units / -51.11% ROI).
- Raiders are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -60.16% ROI
- Raiders are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
- Raiders are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Chiefs are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 10.13% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders are 5-4 (.556) when not forcing a turnover since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .258.
The Raiders are 4-1 (.800) when getting 4 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .281.
The Raiders are 6-1 (.857) when passing for more than 300 yards since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .554.
The Raiders are 8-3 (.727) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .493.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs are 8-1 (.889) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — fifth-best in NFL. The Raiders have intercepted 8 passes since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.
The Chiefs are 11-5 (.688) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — ninth-best in NFL. The Raiders have averaged just 1.9 sacks per game over that time span — tied for third-worst in NFL.