The Tampa Bay Rays (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 86-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 81-79 ATS.
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+13.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 35 games at home (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+2.75 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 79-81 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -1.53% ROI).
- 86-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -2.88% ROI
- 70-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.7 Units / -9.07% ROI
- 80-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 0.92% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-79 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -0.97% ROI).
- 76-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.5 Units / -8.37% ROI
- 75-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -3.67% ROI
- 75-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -7 Units / -3.96% ROI
Jeffrey Springs: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jeffrey Springs has allowed an OBP of just .036 (28 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .216 — 100th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (711/1,627) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 43% of the time (913/2,119) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .211 (104-for-493) against Jeffrey Springs since the start of last season — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 90th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nathan Eovaldi has a strike rate of 70% (705/1,005) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has walked 6 of 298 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has walked 22 of 509 left-handed batters (4%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has walked 1 of 108 batters (1%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.