The Kansas City Royals (+145) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-175) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 65-95 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 84-76 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 53 away games (+17.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 33 games at home (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+15.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Triston McKenzie has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 65 away games (+13.05 Units / 17% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 80-80 against the Run Line (-14 Units / -6.64% ROI).
- 65-95 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.65 Units / -9.23% ROI
- 80-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -0.74% ROI
- 74-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -8.28% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 84-76 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 2.79% ROI).
- 90-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.8 Units / 8.79% ROI
- 73-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.6 Units / -7.16% ROI
- 78-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -1.42% ROI
Daniel A. Lynch: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Daniel Lynch since the start of last season is 412.9 feet — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 398.9
Daniel Lynch has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.3 MPH this season (383 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 88.6
Daniel Lynch has allowed an OPS of .648 (475 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .499 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (45/140) against Daniel Lynch with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cal Quantrill has a strike rate of just 62% (517/839) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (253/1,380) against Cal Quantrill this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (114/767) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 17% (124 SO in 751 PAs) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.