The New York Yankees (-155) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (+125) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Yankees vs Rangers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 97-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 84-74 ATS.
Yankees vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Yankees vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Monday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 13 away games (+17.55 Units / 71% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+13.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+13.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+13.65 Units / 55% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 13 away games (+13.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 70 of his last 119 games (+21.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 25 of his last 30 games (+21.30 Units / 59% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 69 games (+19.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 66 games at home (+15.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 58 of his last 93 games (+14.65 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 away games (+7.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 away games (+7.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.20 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 65 of their last 119 games (+16.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+13.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 147 games (+7.80 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+7.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+4.90 Units / 12% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 71-87 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -9.81% ROI).
- 97-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 0.25% ROI
- 75-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.45 Units / -6.04% ROI
- 78-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -2.85% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 84-74 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.07% ROI).
- 66-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.2 Units / -12.83% ROI
- 77-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -0.37% ROI
- 71-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.8 Units / -7.39% ROI
Luis Severino: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Luis Severino this season is 380.5 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 397.8
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .080 (2 GB hits out of 25 GBs) against Luis Severino with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 53 of Luis Severino’s 198 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 27%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 35% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .127 (26-for-204) against Luis Severino with two-strikes this season — tied for 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 93rd Percentile.
Martin Perez: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 44% (1,062/2,427) against Martin Perez this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of Martin Perez’s pitches (396/752) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Martin Perez has not allowed a home run in any of the last 47.2 innings he’s appeared — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 73.1.
Hitters have swung at 45% of Martin Perez’s pitches (1,297/2,902) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — fourth Percentile.