The Atlanta Braves (-155) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Braves vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 100-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 78-81 ATS.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s matchup with 62.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 78 of his last 109 games (+23.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 away games (+18.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+16.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 83 of his last 147 games (+15.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+15.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 85 of their last 133 games (+29.22 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 109 games (+27.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games (+13.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 away games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 52 away games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 92 games (+25.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 49 of their last 83 games (+16.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 87 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games (+10.25 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+9.80 Units / 34% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 83-76 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -0.82% ROI).
- 100-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.4 Units / 5.31% ROI
- 79-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.23% ROI
- 72-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -8.41% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 78-81 against the Run Line (-14.3 Units / -6.81% ROI).
- 67-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.9 Units / -14.8% ROI
- 69-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.85 Units / -11.28% ROI
- 81-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 3.12% ROI
Bryce Elder: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 28 innings — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 22% (9/41) against Bryce Elder — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 98th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has not allowed a home run in any of the last 33.2 innings he’s appeared — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 73.1.
Bryce Elder has a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (29/56) — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.343 (63 PA’s) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .692 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .152 (30-for-197) against Jesus Luzardo on the road this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strike rate of just 58% (292/503) in two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .186 (52-for-280) against Jesus Luzardo this season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 96th Percentile.