The Philadelphia Phillies (+105) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-125) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Phillies vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 86-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 85-74 ATS.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s matchup with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 58 away games (+20.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 38 of his last 56 away games (+14.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 62 away games (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 away games (+12.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 42 of his last 76 games at home (+14.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+14.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games at home (+8.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Alex Bregman | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Chas McCormick | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Jose Altuve | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Astros vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Alex Bregman | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
Chas McCormick | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
Jose Altuve | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
Astros vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Alex Bregman | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Chas McCormick | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Jose Altuve | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Lance McCullers Jr. | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 -105 |
Aaron Nola | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 109 games (+11.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 away games (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 108 games (+4.65 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 94 of their last 146 games (+31.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 157 games (+24.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 97 of their last 143 games (+19.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 78 of their last 140 games (+16.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games at home (+11.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 80-79 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -1.42% ROI).
- 86-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -0.9% ROI
- 80-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.17% ROI
- 73-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -8.09% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 85-74 against the Run Line (+12 Units / 6.38% ROI).
- 104-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.5 Units / 5.18% ROI
- 59-90 when betting on the total runs Over for -38.75 Units / -22.26% ROI
- 90-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.3 Units / 13.78% ROI
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (552/789) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 7.8 (226/29) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 203 of Aaron Nola’s 429 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 47%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 7 of 281 batters (3%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Lance McCullers Jr.: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (886/2,497) against Lance McCullers in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Lance McCullers has thrown off-speed pitches 80% of the time (1,367/1,719) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Lance McCullers has thrown his curveball 50% of the time (857/1,719) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (18/155) against Lance McCullers with runners in scoring position since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 189 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Pe rcentile.