Some major injuries have left important questions in the betting markets for this week. There are some lines that suggest key quarterbacks like Dillon Gabriel and Malik Cunningham will be out of action. Finding injury information with college football can be a real challenge and not all coaches are forthcoming with the intel about their players, so we’ll have to wait and see how those lines react as the week goes along.
We’ve got a lot of information about the teams now that we’re into Week 6, which has actually led to some overreactions, at least according to my numbers. Bad performances are really being viewed in a negative light, especially if they come on the heels of a team failing to cover the spread. I don’t really factor ATS record into my power ratings process, but it sure seems like the market reacts to it pretty heavily.
I do compare my line and the closing line, but I don’t really look at how far a team underperformed relative to expectation. It does show up when I study the box score, but I’m using those to look more for big turnover margin outliers, special teams or defensive touchdowns and other anomalies. For example, Kent State had 736 yards of offense against Ohio and only managed 31 points, while Arkansas State had just 355 yards and scored 45 points. I see that in a box score and then wonder why, so that’s one of the main functions for why I study those.
Perhaps that is something that I do need to work into my equation more. Like I’ve said in previous articles, power ratings are an inexact science. I can always learn something from what I do right and what I do wrong and maybe I’m not accurately taking performance relative to expectation into account when making my adjustments. It will be something I look at more in future weeks and for future seasons as well.