The Miami Marlins (+140) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Sunday, October 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 66-92 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 66-92 ATS.
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 51 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Garrett Mitchell has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+8.65 Units / 124% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.10 Units / 73% ROI)
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -600 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 91 games (+26.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+15.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+13.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 away games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+9.25 Units / 61% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 72 of their last 138 games (+9.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 74 games at home (+8.97 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games at home (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.75 Units / 94% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 77-81 against the Run Line (-15.3 Units / -7.34% ROI).
- 66-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.45 Units / -15.7% ROI
- 69-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.85 Units / -11.35% ROI
- 81-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 3.14% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 66-92 against the Run Line (-34.1 Units / -17.93% ROI).
- 84-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.2 Units / -8.86% ROI
- 75-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -4.69% ROI
- 76-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.25 Units / -3.02% ROI
Pablo Lopez: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (266/601) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (218/712) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 40% of the time (219/543) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (198/226) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 45% (113 SO in 254 PAs) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .091 (42-for-460) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .166 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .155 (60-for-387) against Freddy Peralta since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .114 (9-for-79) against Freddy Peralta on low fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .271 — 100th Percentile.