The Kansas City Royals (+165) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-200) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 63-94 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 83-74 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 34 away games (+19.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 52 away games (+18.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 24 away games (+15.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+13.40 Units / 53% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+13.10 Units / 50% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 31 games at home (+17.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 26 games at home (+17.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 49 games at home (+14.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.05 Units / 31% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 54 away games (+20.63 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 103 games (+16.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 84 games (+12.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 away games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games (+7.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 82 of their last 138 games (+25.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 138 games (+11.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 64 games at home (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.11 Units / 27% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 78-79 against the Run Line (-14.9 Units / -7.2% ROI).
- 63-94 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.9 Units / -10.75% ROI
- 77-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -2.5% ROI
- 74-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.4 Units / -6.57% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 83-74 against the Run Line (+6.55 Units / 3.34% ROI).
- 89-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.5 Units / 10.44% ROI
- 70-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.6 Units / -9.04% ROI
- 78-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.75 Units / 0.43% ROI
Kristofer Bubic: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (102/325) against Kris Bubic on pitches in the strike zone this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .370 (40-for-108) against Kris Bubic when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .260 — first Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .359 against Kris Bubic this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .256 — 0 Percentile.
Kris Bubic has walked 10 of 63 batters (16%) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Zach Plesac: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Plesac has allowed an OBP of .447 (94 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .315 — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .631 (65 Total Bases / 103 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .417 — second Percentile.
Zach Plesac has a strikeout rate of just 9% (8 SO in 94 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .230 (14-for-61) against Zach Plesac on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .337 — 96th Percentile.