Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 5 odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s games.
Check out our other best college football bets for Week 5:
- Alabama vs. Arkansas
- Michigan vs. Iowa
- Kentucky vs. Ole Miss
- LSU vs. Auburn
- Arizona State vs. USC
- NC State vs. Clemson
- Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
- Oklahoma vs. TCU
- UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee State
- Michigan State vs. Maryland
- Northwestern vs. Penn State
- Colorado vs. Arizona
- Georgia Southern vs. Coastal Carolina
- UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State
- Florida State vs. Wake Forest
- East Carolina vs. South Florida
- Texas State vs. James Madison
- Texas vs. West Virginia
- Rutgers vs. Ohio State
- Old Dominion vs. Liberty
- New Mexico State vs. FIU
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 5 College Football Power Rankings >>
Florida State (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest
Wake Forest is getting some love from the market after pushing Clemson to the brink in last week's overtime loss. This week, the Demon Deacons are walking into the eye of the storm (Hurricane Ian) to play Florida State.
Saturday's inclement conditions might wreak havoc on both teams' passing attacks. Forecasts at kick call for 12 mph winds with a 20% chance of rain. Any deleterious meteorological effect on passing would be far, far more problematic for Wake than FSU in this matchup.
We can officially say it now: FSU HC Mike Norvell has the 'Noles offense up and running to his old Memphis standards. The running game is nasty, explosive, and efficient. And the passing attack can beat the single coverage it consistently gets because of the attention you have to pay the rushing attack, underneath and over-the-top.
Believe it or not, QB Jordan Travis has led FSU to No. 8 EPA/pass so far. Letting Travis lollipop balls over single coverage to 6'7 WR Johnny Wilson is not fair.
But it's that FSU rushing attack that is really going to give Wake headaches. The Seminoles rank top-13 in the country in both rushing success rate and rushing efficiency. In short: It's impossible to keep the Seminoles offense off schedule now that it can block and pass.
Wake Forest's defense doesn't stand a chance of doing so. Wake ranks No. 51 run/EPA – but that mediocre standing is propped up by having played VMI, Vanderbilt, and Liberty. Wake's opponent-adjusted advanced metrics paint a clearer picture.
The Demon Deacons rank No. 70 in defensive rushing success rate and No. 95 in defensive rushing explosion. In short: Wake struggles to keep average rushing attacks off schedule.
FSU's run defense is its defensive weakness. But here's the beautiful thing: Wake Forest is one of the worst rushing teams in the nation. The Demon Deacons rank No. 116 in EPA/run. And incredibly, Wake ranks No. 100 or worse in all of the following run offense categories: success rate, efficiency, explosion, opportunity rate, power success rate, and stuff rate.
Where FSU's defense excels is against the pass. Between that and the expected inclement conditions, there's a real possibility that WF QB Sam Hartman has a down game. Even if he doesn't, it's going to be hard to go score-for-score with FSU's offensive barrage. Especially with Wake coming off that body-blow loss to Clemson.
Pick: FSU -6.5
- Thor Nystrom