Friday was a pretty fun day as we continued to prep for the weekend.
Again, thanks to those who have expressed concern for my dog, Beemo, as he’s doing much better. And (after having a losing day on Thursday), my other dogs also did better Friday as we won our Best Bet on Tulane + 2.5 at Houston as the Green Wave won outright, 27-24 in overtime. We also won our MLB bets as our top play on the White Sox 1st 5 + 0.5 + 115 cashed with the Sox leading the Padres 2-1 after the first 5 innings, so we also cashed our straight 1st 5 ML play at + 175 (and they also went on to win 3-1 for those who bet the full-game ML as we also suggested as they were available at + 190). Good dogs! Let’s recap the rest of the (full-game) betting results from Friday, update our season-long betting stats in MLB (and include NFL from Thursday night), and then, as we’ve started to do this season, we’ll update our Wednesday column where I give my “takes” on the full NFL Week 4 schedule. Friday’s RecapsCFB: UCLA upset No. 15 Washington 40-32 late Friday night in the Rose Bowl. The Bruins did it as 3-point home underdogs and + 120 on the money line. The game went Over the betting total of 65 points). Earlier, Tulane (+ 4) upset Houston 27-24 in OT as the game stayed just Under the consensus closing total of 52.
MLB: Faves went 11-4 Friday with upsets by the White Sox (+ 190 in 3-1 win at Padres), Rays (+ 156 in 7-3 win at Astros), Orioles (+ 150 in 2-1 win at Yankees as Aaron Judge stayed stuck on 61 HRs) and Braves (+ 106 in 5-2 win vs. Mets). Home teams went 10-5. Unders 7-6-2 with pushes in Reds-Cubs (7) and Twins-Tigers (7).
More MLB: Faves lead 1,400-904 SU (60.7 percent) on the season with 36 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace and well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,240-1,109 (52.7 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but had been on the rise but slipping lately). Unders lead 1,153-1,077-120 (51.7 percent).
NFL (ICYMI): With Bengals’ home/fave/Under result on Thursday Night Football, favorites improved to 27-20-1 SU on the season with 1 pick-'em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2), but underdogs still lead 27-19-2 ATS (58.7 percent). Home teams improved to 26-22-1 SU and 24-23-2 ATS. Unders improved to 30-18-1 (62.5 percent), while primetime Unders improved to 8-3 (after going 1-2 in Week 3).
Saturday’s Takes
Texas A&M + 3.5 at Mississippi State: We liked this at 3.5 on Friday and like it even better now at + 4 at every book in Vegas. This should come down to the final possession and it could come in handy to be getting more than a field goal.
Virginia + 3 at Duke: We hope readers grabbed the 3 when we posted this play on Friday as it’s down to 2.5 at most books, though we obviously like the Cavaliers here as we think they can win outright like Tulane did Friday night, so consider Virginia + 120 on the money line. UL-Lafayette + 9 vs. South Alabama: This has been wavering between 8.5 and 9, but we like the underdog Ragin’ Cajuns at anything over a touchdown.MLB dogs: You might have noticed I’ve been backing off on my MLB dogs lately (just taking 1 a day lately when I used to bet 2 a day), and that’s partly by design as it’s hard to find live dogs on a night when faves go 11-4 like last night. We were lucky to cherry-pick the White Sox from that sample yesterday. Anyway, I will go with a small play Saturday on the A’s 1st 5 + 180 at the Mariners as Seattle clinched a wild-card spot last night to end a 20-year playoff drought. I recommend betting this ASAP as it could drop if the Mariners give some starters the day off (though they are still fighting for wild-card positioning on this isn’t a full fade like we see sometimes with these clinching teams). For those who follow my swagger/anti-swagger plays, the Tigers are in an anti-swagger spot after having their 6-game winning streak snapped on Saturday, though you’d have to play the Twins -120.
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to bet the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has worked very well so far this NFL season as underdogs are 27-18-2 ATS (60 percent) vs. the consensus closing lines in Vegas through the first three weeks (note: we’ve graded one game as closing pick-’em: Commanders at Lions in Week 2, so that’s why our stats have just 47 games). During the first two weeks of the season, we were a little disappointed as we weren’t killing it as much as we would expect with so many dogs covering, but went 3-1 ATS with our Best Bets in this column last week (plus also hit our top 2-team, 6-point teaser play with the Dolphins and Lions), so we’re feeling better about ourselves and our decision-making process with these dogs. Personally, I have one bit of bad dog news as I had to take one of my dogs, Beemo, to the vet on Tuesday as he got into a bag of chocolate chip cookies that I made the other day. Hopefully, he and the rest of my dogs this weekend are healthy and strong. Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4) Best Bet: Dolphins + 4 (pool play: Dolphins in all of my rare SU and ATS contests that use the Thursday night game). Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (in London)This is the first “international” game this season from London, so beware that it starts at 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT on Sunday. The Vikings have been an up-and-down team already in the young season with a Week 1 win over the NFC North rival Packers, then getting dominated by the Eagles in Week 2 before rallying to beat the Lions 28-24 in Week 3 (and failing to cover as 6.5-point home favorites). Now, they’re 2.5-point faves at most Las Vegas books and -3 at DraftKings against a Saints team that has lost two straight games to the Buccaneers and Panthers after barely beating the Falcons 27-26 in the opener. The Vikings are the better team right now, but not by a wide margin and I’m not going to lay the points on the road chalk. Instead, this is the right time to talk about our preferred teasers where we capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. My top “advantage teaser” is to take a 2-team, 6-point teaser with the Saints + 8.5 tied with the Falcon s + 8 vs. the Browns as well as other combinations with the Cardinals + 7.5 at the Panthers, Broncos + 8.5 at the Raiders and Rams + 8.5 at the 49ers on Monday Night Football.
Best Bet: Saints + 8.5 or better with Falcons + 8 vs. the Browns, plus other teasers (pool play: Saints around 55/45 in ATS contests – higher if getting + 3 or 3.5 – but Vikings still 55/45 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
I’ve already gone on record with the Titans getting more than a field goal in this coin-flip game at the Colts. Both teams earned their first wins of the season in Week 3 after slow starts (the Titans lost to the Giants and Bills before breaking through against the Raiders while the Colts were 0-1-1 with a tie vs. the Texans and a blowout loss to the Jaguars before rallying to beat the Chiefs 20-17 on Sunday). These teams were expected to be battling for the AFC South title, but instead they’re chasing the first-place Jaguars with the loser of this game in a bigger hole. Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill played better in the win over the Raiders, plus Derrick Henry is still a beast.
Best Bet: Titans + 3.5 (pool play: Titans 75/25 in ATS contests – lower at 3 or especially 2.5 – plus slightly better than 50/50 in SU pools).
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3)
We have an unlikely matchup of 2-1 teams here with the Bears visiting the Giants. The Bears are setting offensive football back by the decade, but it’s working as they continue to wait for Justin Fields to develop. The Bears are No. 6 in rushing offense and take on a Giants’ rushing defense that ranked No. 28, and we don’t think it matters if starting RB David Montgomery (knee, ankle injuries) is able to go as backup Khalil Herbert (157 yards, 2 TDs vs. the Texans) might be the bigger threat anyway.
Best Bet: Bears + 3, but waiting for 3.5 (pool play: Bears 67/33 in ATS contests – even higher if offered 3.5 – and we’ll call for outright upset with Bears 55/45 in SU pools).
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
Even though this is in the cluttered 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT window, this is arguably the marquee game of Week 4. Both teams are just 2-1 with the Ravens inexplicably losing to the Dolphins in Week 2 and the Bills falling to the Dolphins in Week 3 despite outgaining them 497 yards to 212. I successfully faded the Bills last week with the Dolphins, but I don’t think I’m going to be willing to do that again even if this gets back to + 3.5 or even 4. In addition to an explosive offense, the Bills are No. 1 in total defense, allowing just 214 yards per game while the Ravens are last at 457.3.