As many of you know, here at South Point, we always deal NFL sides at -110. We never manipulate the juice, going to -120, EVEN, etc. so we often are faced with the dance between the key numbers of 2.5 and 3 on a game. One group of opinions likes and lays the -2.5, another group of opinions immediately takes the + 3. There are two games on this week's card that have me going back and forth like I'm watching a tennis match. This may be an idea for another VSiN T-shirt or some sort of bookmaker's “dance” move. I don't know. Part of the job, I guess . . . and truly probably my preferred type of dancing.
Here are the Week 4 games presented in official Nevada rotation order. New Orleans Vikings (-3, 41.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (London, England)We have been all over the place in this game. We opened 3 and they took it. Wait a minute. Honestly, I can't even keep track: 2.5, 3, 2.5, 3, back and forth, back and forth. The dance, right? Does that help anybody envision a T-shirt idea? Really, I liked the higher number better because of the way Jameis Winston has looked. As far as an adjustment, I think a healthy Andy Dalton is about the same as a banged-up Winston. We did have some movement on the total with the news of the injury. We opened at 44, it dropped to 43.5, then we went to 42, and they bet Under that, too. Now it's at 41.5.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 43)We opened this 3 and they laid the 3. We are now at 3.5. I do see a lot of 4's out there but we haven't gone there yet. I actually have more Tennessee money at the 3.5 even though there are 4's available elsewhere. No movement here on the total.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3, 39.5)We opened 3 and they laid me the 3. We went to 3.5 and they took back the 3.5 and now they're even starting to take the 3. I do see some spots that have gone to 3 with juice on the dog. Of course, we don't do that, but I certainly don't have enough to go to 2.5. No movement on the total here either.
Buffalo Bills (-3, 51) at Baltimore Ravens We opened this game 3.5 and they took it for a strong bet, so we're down to 3. The public is laying back the 3, so there is a chance we get back to 3.5 but not yet. The sharps are no longer involved at 3. As far as the total, I didn't use it on our parlay cards because I was afraid of the weather that is expected. We did open at 52.5. They bet me Under 52.5, they bet me Under 51.5, and I'm down to 51. Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 45) at Houston Texans