The Miami Marlins (+145) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-175) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 6 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 65-91 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 66-90 ATS.
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Avisail Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 45 games at home (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.70 Units / 70% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 75-81 against the Run Line (-17.3 Units / -8.41% ROI).
- 65-91 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.05 Units / -16.2% ROI
- 69-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.7 Units / -10.25% ROI
- 79-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 2.01% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 66-90 against the Run Line (-32.1 Units / -17.06% ROI).
- 83-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.4 Units / -8.67% ROI
- 75-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -3.51% ROI
- 74-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.25 Units / -4.22% ROI
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (94/528) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (104/593) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (1,001/1,388) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has pitched 7 or more innings in each of his last three games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 71% of the time (159/225) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 67% of the time (1,099/1,650) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (93/219) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
109 of Corbin Burnes’ 231 strikeouts (47%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.