As I wrote in this space a week ago, the Under is our friend. It's not going away anytime soon.
Unders are now 29-18-1 on the season. We have seen them hit with great regularity in the primetime window, and even when some of the best quarterbacks in league history get together in the same game. Many offenses are struggling, play has been choppy and even as these numbers come down in many places, I just don't think they are low enough.
- More Week 4 picks: Model | Hartstein | 9;Pick 'em'| Survivor | Props |'DFS
So we are going to lean into this trend, yet again.
Bills -3 at Ravens
Don't let what Lamar Jackson is doing distract you from the fact the the Ravens still can't play a lick of defense. Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa moved the ball all over the place on them, and while a year ago they were 32nd against the pass (they still are) and allowed the most big plays (they still do), at least then they could stuff the run. Now they can't do that either, and big free agent signing Michael Pierce is now out for the year. The Bills have the NFL's top defense in yards per game and they are in the top five in yards per pass and yards per carry. They get immense pressure without even blitzing — they do so at by far the lowest rate in the league. Jackson has been killing the blitz but he isn't quite as good against nickel and dime packages. The Bills live in that stuff. The last time Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley played football – Week 1 of last season – it was horrific. Now he gets Von Miller in his return from a second round of major ankle procedures. And Baltimore is no longer strong at home, losing four straight dating back to last year.