Week 5 of the college football calendar has arrived, and with it comes a new table of NCAAF odds.'
Accordingly, I've got a fresh set of picks to hand out.
College Football Best Bets: Week 5 Predictions
After I've handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my five best plays from the wider canon of college football odds.
I'll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don't have to go on faith alone.
If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion's Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM.'
Last week, the Saturday picks went 3-2. I also threw a dart with Georgia State on Thursday night, which lost.
Column picks are now 11-10 on the season. Let's see if October will fare any better.
This is a Friday night game that offers double the value. Bettors are too high on Houston after last year's American championship game appearance, but they're also too low on Tulane after last week's loss to Southern Miss.
Southern Miss is good, which is what I said in last week's best bets column when I told you to back the Golden Eagles. (It's also why I've advocated them as a dark horse to bet in the Sun Belt championship odds market, but I digress.)
This game allows bettors to capitalize on the market's unfairly low view of Tulane, which I think is just a straight-up better team than Houston this year.'
The book's number actually bears this out, too. This game opened at Houston -1, which is a common sportsbook strategy to draw in action on an undesirable team. Bettors see a known brand team like Houston and feel they're getting a good deal with Houston only needing to cover a single point.
In reality, Tulane is the better side here, and we're getting an extra point and a half of free value because of the market swing.