The Miami Marlins (+140) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 64-91 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 66-88 ATS.
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Avisail Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 45 games at home (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 19% ROI)
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Mike Brosseau | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Mike Brosseau | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Mike Brosseau | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 -105 |
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 away games (+8.15 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.70 Units / 71% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 74-81 against the Run Line (-18.3 Units / -8.96% ROI).
- 64-91 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.55 Units / -17.1% ROI
- 69-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.5 Units / -9.62% ROI
- 78-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 1.44% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 66-88 against the Run Line (-29.5 Units / -15.89% ROI).
- 83-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.75 Units / -8.05% ROI
- 75-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -2.83% ROI
- 73-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -4.84% ROI
Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett had a strike rate of 78% (62/80) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 51% (19/37) against Braxton Garrett — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 36% (233/654) against Braxton Garrett this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 46% (112/242) against Braxton Garrett on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .274 (32-for-117) against Eric Lauer on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (103/299) against Eric Lauer in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.
Eric Lauer has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (611/1,374) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (268/751) against Eric Lauer since the start of last season — tied for 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 44% — ninth Percentile.