The Tampa Bay Rays (-110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-110) on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Rays vs Guardians Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 85-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-74 ATS.
Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+13.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+17.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 71 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.40 Units / 23% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 77-78 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -0.8% ROI).
- 85-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -1.54% ROI
- 69-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -7.39% ROI
- 76-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -0.69% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-74 against the Run Line (+3.95 Units / 2.04% ROI).
- 87-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.45 Units / 9.51% ROI
- 69-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.5 Units / -9.09% ROI
- 77-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 0.56% ROI
Jeffrey Springs: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (23/72) against Jeffrey Springs this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 35% (497/1,435) against Jeffrey Springs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 43% of the time (676/1,563) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 43% of the time (878/2,055) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
30 of Cal Quantrill’s 99 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .397 (23-for-58) against Cal Quantrill this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (214/1,259) against Cal Quantrill since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has thrown his slider 38% of the time (735/1,948) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 96th Percentile.