NFL survivor pool strategy/picks, Week 4: Considering safe, value, trap picks for football knockout pools

The NFL is back for Week 4 and Survivor pools are shrinking in a hurry. Week 3 upsets including the Colts over the Chiefs and the Jaguars over the Chargers resulted in quite a few strikes in most Survivor pools. If you were like me and settled on the Vikings over the Lions, you sweated it out but remained alive.

This week, things don't get much easier. There's an obvious choice in Packers over Patriots, particularly with Mac Jones sidelined. Beyond that, there aren't a lot of great choices. Other notable DraftKings Sportsbook favorites this weekend include Eagles (-6.5) vs. Jaguars, Chargers (-4.5) vs. Texans, and Lions (-4.5) vs. Seahawks. The Packers are 9.5-point favorites over the Patriots and it's hard not to like that as the Survivor pick of the week.

Regardless, we're back with a look at safe choices, value choices, and potential traps. Last week, our picks were all over the place. We nailed our value pick of Browns over Steelers, and were correct in calling Chiefs-Colts a trap game. But our other trap game was Eagles-Commanders, which turned into a one-sided affair, and our safe pick was Chargers over Jaguars, and we know how that turned out.

Safest picks

Packers over Patriots

With Mac Jones out due to injury, this is going to be a wildly popular pick. Rarely does a game get up over 50% of the action in a given week of a Survivor pool, but I would not be surprised if this was getting north of 50% in what is an otherwise pretty tough week. You could save the Packers for Week 6 against the Jets as well, but there is enough other value that week to use the Packers now.

Best value picks

Packers over Patriots
Chargers over Texans

If you reeeeeally want to save the Packers, Chargers at Texans is interesting with Keenan Allen potentially coming back. The Chargers got thumped by the Jaguars last week, but Jacksonville seems like they may be a much better team, than anticipated. Houston tied the Colts but otherwise stinks.

Trap pick

Cowboys over Commanders

I don't trust any NFC East matchup, regardless of if Dak Prescott returns or not. Stay away from it.

  
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