The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 80-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 78-76 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 away games (+15.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+15.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games at home (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 26 games at home (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -165 |
| Dean Kremer | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games (+11.70 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 96-58 against the Run Line (+26.35 Units / 13% ROI).
- 80-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +26.6 Units / 15.87% ROI
- 70-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.65 Units / -8.66% ROI
- 78-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 0.73% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 78-76 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -0.98% ROI).
- 73-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.7 Units / -8.78% ROI
- 72-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -3.6% ROI
- 72-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -3.85% ROI
Dean Kremer: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .282 (102-for-362) against Dean Kremer’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .222 — fourth Percentile.
Dean Kremer has walked 7 of 56 batters (12%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (64/340) against Dean Kremer this season — 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (22/39) against Dean Kremer — 9th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 90th Percentile.
Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (555/1,283) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (1,978/4,306) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (289/902) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (484/1,097) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.