The Miami Marlins (+150) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-185) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 64-90 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 84-71 ATS.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 61.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Avisail Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 55 of his last 72 games (+21.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 42 of his last 64 games (+19.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 44 games at home (+18.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 55 games (+18.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+14.85 Units / 35% ROI)
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| James McCann | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 -105 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 away games (+9.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.15 Units / 41% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 73-81 against the Run Line (-19.3 Units / -9.52% ROI).
- 64-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.55 Units / -16.64% ROI
- 68-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.5 Units / -10.27% ROI
- 78-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 2.03% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 84-71 against the Run Line (+11.85 Units / 6.11% ROI).
- 97-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.4 Units / 1.64% ROI
- 81-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.1 Units / 4.14% ROI
- 67-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.05 Units / -12.94% ROI
Jesús Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .846 (44 Total Bases / 52 ABs) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .396 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .149 (26-for-175) against Jesus Luzardo on the road this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.263 (61 PA’s) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .695 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (16/54) against Jesus Luzardo this month (4 games) — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 121 of Taijuan Walker’s 537 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 23%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (15/87) against Taijuan Walker — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 56 of Taijuan Walker’s 226 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 25%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 162 of Taijuan Walker’s 754 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.