The Tampa Bay Rays (+105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-125) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Rays vs Guardians Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 85-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-73 ATS.
Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 57.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+13.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+17.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 71 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.95 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 76-78 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -1.34% ROI).
- 85-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -1.08% ROI
- 69-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -6.72% ROI
- 75-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.27% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-73 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 2.57% ROI).
- 86-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.45 Units / 9.06% ROI
- 69-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -8.45% ROI
- 76-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.03% ROI
Tyler Glasnow: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie allowed a batting average of just .171 vs right-handed batters (10th best)– 83rd Percentile and .304 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (10th worst among qualified SPs)– 18th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (154/472) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has a strike rate of 75% (142/189) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has a strikeout rate of 70% (21 SO in 30 PAs) with two-strikes — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.