Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule.
For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to be the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has worked very well so far this NFL season as underdogs are 27-18-2 ATS (60 percent) vs. the consensus closing lines in Vegas through the first three weeks (note: we’ve graded one game as closing pick-’em: Commanders at Lions in Week 2, so that’s why our stats have just 47 games). During the first two weeks of the season, we were a little disappointing as we weren’t killing it as much as we would expect with so many dogs covering, but went went 3-1 ATS with our Best Bets in this column last week (plus also hit our top 2-team, 6-point teaser play with the Dolphins and Lions), so we’re feeling better about ourselves. Personally, I have one bit of bad dog news as I had to take one of my dogs, Beemo, to the vet on Tuesday as he got into a bag of chocolate chip cookies that IMiami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)
We get another intriguing Thursday night matchup with the Dolphin (one of only two undefeated teams left along with the Eagles) visiting the Bengals, who finally got in the win column with their 27-12 win at the Jets on Sunday. The advance line on this game was Bengals -2 and was bet to -2.5 and then -3 on Sunday night and has since gone up to -4. The early movement was due to reports that Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa might have suffered a concussion in Sunday’s win over the Bills and might not be available with the quick turnaround and having to travel for the Thursday nighter. But Tagovailoa says he’s going to play, and if that’s the case, we have to like the inflated price on the Dolphins again (last week, we loved the Dolphins at + 6 against the Bills, who many people were putting in the Super Bowl already. The Dolphins’ defense allowed the Bills to score just 19 points and if it could contain Josh Allen, it should be easier shutting down Joe Burrow, who has been 15 times already in three games.
Best Bet: Dolphins + 4 (pool play: Dolphins in all of my rare SU and ATS contests that use the Thursday night game).
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at New Orleans Saints
This is the first “international” game this season from London, so beware that it starts at 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 p.m. PT on Sunday. The VIkings have been an up-and-down team already in the young season with a Week 1 win over the NFC North rival Packers, then getting dominated by the Eagles in Week 2 before rallying to beat the Lions 28-24 in Week 3 (and failing to cover as 6.5-point home favorites). Now, they’re 2.5-point faves at most Las Vegas books and -3 at DraftKings against a Saints team that has lost two straight games to the Buccaneers and Panther after barely beatin the Falcons 27-26 in the opener. The Vikings are the better team right now, but I’m not going to lay the point on the road chalk. Instead, this is the right time to talk about our preferred teasers where we capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. My top “advantage teaser” is to take a 2-team, 6-pojnt teasers with the Saints + 8.5 tied with the Falcons + 8 vs. the Browns as well as other combinations with the Cardinals + 7.5 at the Panthers, Broncos + 8.5 at the Raiders and Rams + 8.5 at the 49ers on Monday Night Football. Note: another potential teaser play is the Buccaneers teased up to + 8 in the Sunday nighter, but we’re not sure if that’s going to be played in Tampa or move because of Hurricane Ian.
Best Bet: Saints + 8.5 or better with Falcons + vs. the Browns, plus other teasers (pool play: Saints around 55/45 in ATS contests – higher if getting + 3 or 3.5 – but VIkings still 55/45 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
I’ve already gone on record with the Titans getting more than a field goal in this coin-flip game at the Colts. Both teams earned their first wins of the season in Week 3 after slow starts (the Titans lost to the Giants and Bills before breaking through against the Raiders while the Colts were 0-1-1 with a tie vs. the Texans and a blowout loss to the Jaguars before rallying to beat the Chiefs 20-17 on Sunday. These teams were expected to be battling for the AFC South title, but instead they’re chasing the first-place Jaguars with the loser of this game in a bigger hole. Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill played better in the win over the Raiders, plus Derrick Henry is still a beast.
Best Bet: Titans + 3.5 (pool play: Titans 75/25 in ATS contests – lower at 3 or especially 2.5 – plus slightly better than 50/50 in SU pools).
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3)
We have an unlikely matchup of 2-1 teams here with the Bears visiting the Giants. The Bears are setting back offensive football by the decade, but it’s working as they continue to wait for Justin Fields to develop. The Bears are No. 6 in rushing offense and take on a Giants’ defense that ranked No. 28, and we don’t think it matters if starting RB David Montgomery (knee, ankle injuries) is able to go as backup Khalil Herbert (157 yards, 2 TDs vs. the Texans) might be the bigger threat anyway.
Best Bet: Bears + 3, but waiting for 3.5 (pool play: Bears 67/33 in ATS contests – even higher if offered 3.5 – and we’ll call for outright upset with Bears 55/45 in SU pools).
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
Even though this is in the cluttered 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT window, this is arguably the marquee game of Week 4. Both teams are just 2-1 with the Ravens inexplicably losing to the Dolphins in Week 2 and the Bills falling to the Dolphins in Week 3 despite outgaining them 497 yards to 212. I successfully faded the Bills last week with the Dolphins, but I don’t think I’m going to be willing to do that again even if this gets back to + 3.5 or even 4. In addition to an explosive offense, the Bills defense is No. 1 in total defense, allowing just 214 yards per game while the Ravens are last at 457.3..
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills 60/40 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Houston Texans