Today’s MLB Home Run Prop Bets For September 26
WagerTalk content contributor Kyle Kargel provides his daily home run prop picks and predictions for Monday, September 26 with odds provided by PointsBet. With only four games on the slate tonight, it’s slim pickings for home run prop picks, but we have you covered!
Home Run Prop Prediction 1: Austin Riley (+240)
Austin Riley and the Braves are still gunning for the NL East title as we head into the last week or so of the ML regular season. Riley has an outside chance of getting to 40 home runs but he needs to do some damage in this upcoming series against the Nationals.
He's hit eight home runs against Washington this season which is the most of any team he's faced while hitting .292 against them as well. Nationals Park is also the field he has the most road home runs in this season as well with four.
The Nationals are sending Cory Abbott to the mound tonight who seems to be an opener of sorts and also the pitcher who Riley last hit a home run off of a week ago.
During that start Abbott went four innings allowing four earned runs including that home run. Riley is +240 to hit a home run while other Braves hitters to consider are Dansby Swanson +300 and William Contreras +290.
Home Run Prop Prediction 2: Rafael Devers (+280)
Jordan Lyles is the definition of an average starting pitcher in the MLB this season sitting at 11-11 with a 4.50 ERA. When he goes on the road though those numbers get worse, especially against the Red Sox.
His road ERA stands at 5.48 with 18 home runs give up in 87 innings pitched. Against the Red Sox specifically his ERA stands at 8.00 with 16 earned runs given up in 18 innings pitched. Rafael Devers is 5-15 against Lyles on the season with one home run.
Devers hits .313 at home with 11 home runs on the road and posts that exact same average against Baltimore this season as well to go along with two home runs. Boston doesn't have anything to play for with only 10 games left in their season but Devers has a shot to get to 30 home runs on the season.
Get Devers at +280 to hit a home run with another Red Sox hitter to consider is Tommy Pham at +425 who is 5-13 against Lyles with a home run in his career.