Here’s one of our top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks for Monday’s slate of games: Orioles vs. Red Sox.
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This one does not seem like a great bet on paper with Connor Seabold starting for the Red Sox. Seabold has an ERA over 10 this season mostly due to being extremely homer prone. He is allowing over two homers per nine which is masking some interesting skills in terms of his swing and miss potential. He faces the Orioles who in the last thirty days are middle of the pack in terms of home runs. This is mostly a gamble on Seabold being able to do just enough to get through the first because this is a plus odds bet which you do not see often in NRFI bets.
On the other end of this game, we have Jordan Lyles making the start. Lyles has an ERA over four this season but that is actually better than it has been in any of the past few seasons. He is limiting homers and walks which is allowing him to post truly solid results. The top three in the Red Sox lineup are above-average hitters but their power numbers are not as impressive as some other top ends of lineups. Lyles struggles a bit the first time through the order relative to the rest of the game but we just need him to have a clean first for this to hit.