The San Diego Padres (-150) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (+125) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Denver.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at –1.5 (+100).
The Padres vs Rockies Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 84-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 81-70 ATS.
Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Padres vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 33 games (+13.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 58 away games (+11.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 57 games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- German Marquez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Brendan Rodgers has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Yonathan Daza has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kyle Freeland has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yonathan Daza has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+10.95 Units / 36% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 away games (+10.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 64 away games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.90 Units / 42% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rockies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+11.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 games at home (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 67-85 against the Run Line (-24.05 Units / -12.73% ROI).
- 84-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.9 Units / -4.73% ROI
- 71-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.95 Units / -7.77% ROI
- 77-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -0.56% ROI
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 81-70 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 1.77% ROI).
- 64-87 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -2.42% ROI
- 69-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.5 Units / -8.67% ROI
- 75-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -0.76% ROI
Michael Clevinger: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .190 (8-for-42) against Mike Clevinger on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .336 — 99th Percentile.
Mike Clevinger has not struck out a hitter in his last 32 PAs against a RHH dating back to September 9th — Adrian Houser has the longest active streak at 46.
Opponents are hitting just .239 (17-for-71) against Mike Clevinger when he’s behind in the count this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .334 — 95th Percentile.
Mike Clevinger has allowed a slugging percentage of .674 (31 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .429 — sixth Percentile.
Kyle Freeland: Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
27 of Kyle Freeland’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (258/475) of opposing batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 46 of Kyle Freeland’s 260 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 18%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has a strike rate of just 62% (1,314/2,110) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.