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We have a pivotal Game 3 at Kauffman Stadium on Wednesday, as the Kansas City Royals look to carry the momentum of their road win when they host the New York Yankees with this ALDS series tied at 1-1.
- Just as I did for Game 2, I'm fading New York's offense for my Yankees vs. Royals prediction
- New York mustered just two runs on Monday despite chasing Royals ace Cole Ragans after only four innings. The Yankees managed to draw four walks but never capitalized
- The Royals took full advantage of their opportunities, turning seven hits against Carlos Rodon into four runs
- Kansas City features a lineup with bat-to-ball skills, power, and speed, and its timely hitting proved vital in Game 2
Despite Monday's loss, the Yankees are still the AL favorites by the World Series odds, and Aaron Judge – who I put on fraud watch ahead of Game 2 – is the second-biggest favorite by the World Se ries MVP odds.
Wednesday is jam-packed with every team playing, so be sure to see Mike Spector's Guardians vs. Tigers prediction. The NLCS matchup could be determined, too, so head to our Phillies vs. Mets prediction and Dodgers vs. Padres prediction to find the best bets before Philadelphia and Los Angeles potentially head to Cancun.
Yankees vs. Royals predictions: Game 3
- Moneyline pick: Royals to win (-102 via FanDuel) ???
- My best bet: Seth Lugo Over 14.5 outs (-140 via bet365) ????
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Yankees vs. Royals?
First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET, Kauffman Stadium
Best odds: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.50%
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I'm backing the Royals to ride their wave of momentum all the way from New York to Missouri and jump out to a 2-1 series lead in the ALDS.
The Royals send veteran Seth Lugo to the mound on Wednesday. Lugo finished tied for sixth in fWAR among all starters and tied for the second-most quality starts this season, showing his ability to go deep into games and limit damage. He also had one of the best HR/9 rates in the league, which is especially important against the Yankees.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will respond with Clarke Schmidt. He was very good in his own right this season, but following his return from a lat injury, he failed to make it through six innings in any of his five starts. He has great stuff, but he can also be wildly inefficient. That's not ideal considering the Yankees used seven relievers on Monday with Rodon managing to go only 3 2/3.
In general, I never liked the Yankees as a playoff team once they failed to add to their lineup in a significant way. It was mostly a two-man show during the regular season, and with Judge taking a poo in his pinstripes whenever the postseason rolls around, those role players are forced to carry the offence.
I think Lugo will limit the damage across five-plus frames and the Royals will scratch across enough runs to win in a similar fashion to how they did in Game 2.
See the rest of our MLB picks.
My Yankees vs. Royals best bet
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Best odds: -140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 58.33%
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Naturally, following my focus on Lugo for our moneyline bet, I'm turning to him for my best player prop bet, too.
As previously mentioned, Lugo had the second-most quality starts in baseball this year, and he did so because he knows who he is.
Once an elite strikeout pitcher whose fastball averaged upwards of 94 mph, Lugo used his disgusting breaking pitches this year to force weak contact. His curveball, in particular, allowed a batting average of just .179 against it. He primarily used that against lefties – the Yankees will likely start Soto, Austin Wells, Jazz Chisholm, and Alex Verdugo.
This total is set at a key number, meaning Lugo needs to go only five full innings to cash the Over.
The only starter to accomplish that so far in this series was Gerrit Cole in Game 1, but between Lugo's efficiency and the Royals' bullpen usage through two games, t here's a very good chance that Lugo becomes the second pitcher to go five-plus.
Yankees vs. Royals odds & Game 3 info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 9
- First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
- Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City
- How to watch: TBS
- Favorite: Yankees (-115 via BetMGM)
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