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The No. 1 seed in the National League playoffs is on the brink of elimination tonight as the Los Angeles Dodgers need a win to keep their season alive when facing the San Diego Padres.
- With yesterday's 6-5 win, the Padres hold a 10-6 season series edge over the Dodgers
- San Diego's six runs in the second inning yesterday was a franchise single-inning postseason record
- Dodgers manager Dave Roberts fell to 9-8 in Game 3's in his postseason career.
Our Dodgers vs. Padres prediction expects the home favorites to punch their NLCS ticket as injuries are catching up to Los Angeles. San Diego enters Wednesday as the World Series odds favorite.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is the favorite by the World Series MVP Odds.
Dodgers vs. Padres predictions: Game 4
- Moneyline pick: Padres (-145 via Caesars) ????
- My best b et: Fernando Tatis Jr. to record an RBI (+145 via FanDuel) ????
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Dodgers vs. Padres?
First pitch: 9:08 p.m. ET, Petco Park
Best odds: -145 via Caesars | Implied probability: 59.18%
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The Dodgers won an MLB-best 98 games in the regular season, but this version of the team is a shell of itself, and the mounting injuries will be their undoing.
L.A.'s starting pitching depth has been wiped out with injuries to Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and others. This is forcing the Dodgers to use a bullpen game while facing elimination.
While the bullpen did well to hold San Diego hitless over the final three innings, that is not a sustainable recipe for success.
San Diego has a huge pitching edge with Dylan Cease toeing the rubber. Cease has pitched to a 10.13 ERA in just 2 2/3 postseason innings, but he was lights out in the second half of the season, improving his ERA from 3.99 to 2.66. He had a three-start span from mid-to-late July where he allowed just two hits over 22 innings, and two of those opponents were playoff teams (Braves a nd Guardians).
Cease has one of the biggest weapons among starting pitchers, a slider that held opponents to a .159 OBA and induced a 45% whiff rate. Couple that with Freddie Freeman hobbling around on a bum ankle and Mookie Betts going a combined 8-for-58 in his last four postseason series, and the red-hot Padres should finish this series tonight.
See the rest of our MLB picks.
My Dodgers vs. Padres best bet
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Best odds: +145 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 40.82%
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On fire doesn't even begin to describe Tatis this postseason. Coming into yesterday's game, Tatis ranked first in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS among all batters in postseason play (min. 40 plate appearances).
After his two-run home run in the second inning yesterday, Tatis was 10-for-16 with four home runs, seven RBIs, two doubles, and three walks this postseason.
Tatis has also been deadly against fastballs this season, as he had a 200 wRC+, a .348 ISO, and .652 slugging against the pitch.
Our best MLB betting sites expect him to produce at least one base hit, as the O/U for his hits is set at 1.5. And given that the implied probability for the Over on his 1.5 total bases is as high as 52.38% at DraftKings, there is great value on his +145 odds to drive in a run at FanDuel compared to Caesars who is on the low end at +129.
A $1 0 winning wager at FanDuel's +145 odds would net $14.50 in profits.
Dodgers vs. Padres odds & Game 4 info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 9
- First pitch: 9:08 p.m. ET
- Where: Petco Park (San Diego, Calif.)
- How to watch: FS1
- Favorite: Padres (-150 via BetMGM)
Wednesday's MLB playoff picks
- Guardians vs. Tigers prediction
- Phillies vs. Mets prediction
MLB betting odds pages
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